Putin praises the strength of the Russian war economy, critics see illusions
Putin praises the strength of the Russian war economy, critics see illusions
The image of economic strength
These statistics send a message to the audience at home and abroad, says Elina Ribakova, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. To the Russian public: "We are still standing." To the allies of Ukraine: "We can hold out."
deception or reality?
However, the projection of an image of economic strength has practical consequences. Some in the western countries have questioned whether the sanctions imposed by the supporters of Ukraine - which were dismissed by President Vladimir Putin as a mere "logistical hurdles" - even. If you don't do that, why then make an effort?
other experts, on the other hand, say that this image of resistance is an illusion - a carefully curated representation of the Kremlin in order to make his opponents be able to make the Russian economy in good condition. While the war approaches his third anniversary, this masquerade begins to crumble.
metaphors for the economic situation
to explain Russia's apparent economic strength, analysts have used metaphors. Some describe growth as "on steroids", which means quick, but unnatural and non -sustainable growth. Ribakova told CNN: "'Steroids' is a good term, but it actually produces some muscle mass. However, I would not call it a muscle here. It is more like you are running around coke."
The shadow economy and its risks
The Russian economy could soon feel the negative consequences of this phase. Row -less and more dissatisfied Russian civil servants warn that the economy reaches its production boundaries, which drives prices. Inflation accelerated itself last year, even though the central bank lifted interest on 21 % in October - the highest level in two decades.
US President Donald Trump explained in a swing of decay in white in white House that Russia's economy is a sign that the country is in "great difficulties" and that Putin destroys "Russia by not making a deal" over Ukraine. Evidence of these difficulties includes the effects of new sanctions Credit bubble.
The reactions to the current situation
Kennedy's analysis has led to different reactions. A comment in the Financial Times described the situation as a "ticking financial time bomb". Others, such as Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr, have questioned some of Kennedy's knowledge and argue that the fears of a banking crisis were "exaggerated". Tymofiy Mylovanov, head of the Kyiv School of Economics and former Minister of Economics in Ukraine, expressed that the results were worrying, but not necessarily destructive.
A look into the future
Even without a credit crisis, the Russian economy faces serious challenges in 2025. The international monetary fund estimates , that the Russian GDP 2024 grew by 3.8 %, but only forecast growth of 1.4 % for this year. Putin recently admitted that "the amount of products is not as grown as consumption" - a classic recipe for price increases.
These developments show that Moscow cannot maintain both the financing of the war and that of the regular economy at the same time while economic stability is maintained. Since the cremal guidance has apparently only been able to manage all three aspects, there may be a change soon.
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