Iran-Israel conflict: After the war, the diplomats take over

Iran-Israel conflict: After the war, the diplomats take over

Brett McGurk is a global political analyst at CNN and has served in higher positions of national security under President George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

The situation in the Middle East after US air strikes

according to the American air strikes against Iranian nuclear systems in the last week, followed by the Prevention of a ceasefire , it is time to step back and evaluate what has changed in the Middle East and what chances exist, military To convert success into sustainable strategic profits.

The meaning of events that have not happened

In a national security crisis, what does not happen can be as important as what happens. This applies in particular to the Current conflict with Iran . For years, analysts have predicted that an American blow to Iran would lead to a comprehensive war in the Middle East, with hundreds, if not thousands of American losses and an escalation spiral that Tehran could possibly control by asymmetrical means, such as military militias in the region.

reality vs. forecast

I held These claims as exaggerated as well as as a founded analysis. This is particularly true in this crisis, which arose after an almost 18-month containment of Iranian power by Israel, in response to Tehran's fatal decision to interfere in a war against his rival, shortly after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Iran reacts weakly

Today we not only have theories and predictions about Iran's reaction to an American attack, but also direct experiences. So far, it has proven that the pessimists were wrong. Iran reacted weakly with an announced and failed rocket attack on a US base only united the golf states in their conviction Iran. Iran's militias - from the already weakened Hisbollah in Lebanon to the Iraqi militias under the command of the Corps of Islamic Revolutionary Guards - fully resigned.

lack of support in times of crisis

nobody worldwide came to the aid of Iran. In the foreign policy circles there is the theory that an alliance called “Crink” - China, Russia, Iran, North Korea - could work together in a crisis or a conflict with the West. These states could be undeniable tactical and themed partnerships, such as the support of North Korea from Iran in the fight for Russia in the war against Ukraine .

Russia's role in the Middle East

But when it became critical in the Middle East, and Iran suffered his greatest military setbacks since the 1979 revolution, these partners were not to be found. China made it clear that Iran should not think about the Golf states is dependent. When Iran's Foreign Minister visited Russia during the crisis, he only left it with a harmless explanation from Moscow, who called for a de -escalation.

Today assad has disappeared (now lives in Moscow, ) Russians hardly keep a foot in the Syrian port city of Tartus. Russia's dreaded air defense systems, known as S-300, prove to be useless and were easily destroyed by Israel's military systems, which were largely provided by the USA

all of this - together with Russia's war in Ukraine, where it suffered almost 1 million military losses and has never achieved air superiority over Ukrainian territory, while Israel achieved this in 24 hours - makes Moscow appear to be unwilling to project in the Middle East, let alone actively support Iran.

Overall, this not only occurred scenario shows in the crisis not only the weakness of Iran, but also the fragility of an anti-Western alliance led by Russia and China.