Five possible ends of the Russia Ukraine War

Five possible ends of the Russia Ukraine War

In the past few months, the possible meeting between Donald Trump and Wladimir Putin . But what could be the motives of both sides to realize such a meeting now?

Trump's ambitions

The US President Donald Trump believes that he can reach an agreement with his charming personality and through direct conversations with the Kremlin. Despite the rigid attitude of Moscow in the past six months, Trump hopes that a personal meeting could change the situation. He believes that the Kremlin may have to be persuaded to end the War in Ukraine .

Putin's strategies

On the other hand, Vladimir Putin wants to win time. In May he rejected an unconditional ceasefire from Europe, the USA and Ukraine and instead offered only short, meaningless breaks. The Russian troops continue their offensive in summer, which could bring Putin to a better negotiating position to negotiate a completely different status quo of the war in autumn.

a possible three -person discussion

If there is a meeting, a goal on the American side could be a three -energy with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the end of the war. This format was rejected by Russia in Istanbul in May. However, Putin's goal could be to move Trump back into the story of Moscow.

potential scenarios for the conflict

Here are five possible scenarios of how the war could end:

1. An unconditional ceasefire

not very likely. It is highly unlikely that Putin will agree to a ceasefire in which the front lines remain unchanged. The United States, Europe and Ukraine had already called for such a break in May, but Russia rejected this. Trump retired from sanctions and preferred conversations in Istanbul that remained fruitless. An earlier 30-day ceasefire for energy infrastructure was hardly met.

2. Pragmatism and further conversations

The talks could aim to negotiate again in the future to secure the Russian profits during the winter. Until then, Putin could have conquered the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Kostiannivka and Kupiansk, which would give him a solid position for winter.

3. Ukraine will hold through

In this scenario, military support from the USA and Europe of Ukraine could help keep their front lines. There could be new conversations if Putin's military weakens again. While some important cities could be at risk, the Russian offensive could stall what would be important for Ukraine.

4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO

Putin could recognize the cracks in western unity and leave the Ukraine to its own devices. Europe could try to support Kyiv, but would be powerless without American help. Ukrainian troops could be pushed back in the open terrains between Donbass and Dnipro, which would lead to a political disaster.

5. Putin's disaster: a repeat pattern as in Afghanistan

Russia could pursue a strategy that accepts countless life losses, while sanctions undermine its relationships with China. The dissatisfaction within the Moscow elite could grow if the Kremlin ignores diplomatic solutions. There was already a similar scenario during the Soviet Afghanistan war.

None of the options is advantageous for Ukraine. Only one of the scenarios could represent the end of Russia as a military power, whereby no outcome can result from a possible meeting between Trump and Putin without becoming part of a later agreement.