Incorrect view: Ukrainian attacks on Russia and the escalation

Incorrect view: Ukrainian attacks on Russia and the escalation

After more than 1,000 days of war, the Russian President wladimir Putin repeats the West that serious - possibly nuclear - threatens consequences if they were given the war through the delivery of Waffen to the ukraine escalate. These threats have increased in intensity

Putin's threats and their consequences

after Putin has updated the nuclear doctrine of Russia and a new nuclear ballist fired on Ukraine, his message to the supporters of Ukraine became clear: "Don't test us." Despite these new threats, analysts believe that this situation will not be different than in the past.

a well -known pattern

The war has accepted a well -known pattern. Every time the Ukraine asks for support-be it about Long-distance weapons -hesitiate their allies out of fear of an escalation of the conflict. Nevertheless, the catastrophic threats of Russia failed to do so if the West ultimately gave the demands of Ukraine.

the Kremlin and the perception of the conflict

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin pursues the strategy of force the West to argue from Russian assumptions. The continuing debates about military help for Ukraine are an example of how the western countries were dissuaded by their actual course by the ideas of the Kremlin. This situation is particularly clear when Russia started a large -scale attack on the Ukrainian power grid last week.

international reactions and understanding aggression

According to the co-author of the ISW report, Kateryna Stepanenko, it is a revival of the Soviet concept of "reflexive control". The opponent is imposed on the opponent that contradict his own interests. Despite the ongoing escalations, the Kremlin did not need any legitimate reasons for its attacks.

faulty policies and their effects

The bid administration had previously provided US Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), but determined strict conditions with regard to their use. This policy proves to be irrational and favors Russia considerably. The message to Russia is: "If you only move a few meters across the border, you are out of danger."

The changed red lines of the conflict

In the middle of the concerned reactions to the latest developments, it should not be forgotten that Ukraine has long used self -developed drones against deep -seated destinations in Russia. The decision to use somewhat longer western weapons represents only one gradual difference. In fact, Ukraine already has British storm> storm Shadows used to attack Russia since the occupation of the Crimea in 2014.

conclusion: threats and the reality of the war

The repeated threats of Russia show that the red lines marked are flexible. The war has proven that despite escalating threats, there are no serious consequences. While the western countries were hesitating, Ukraine has expanded its capacities and continued to grant itself against Russian aggression. The potential of an upcoming Donald Trump regime could also defuse Russia's actions. Overall, the geopolitic situation remains tense, while Ukraine continues to rely on international support.