Diplomatic week: Ukraine remains in the same situation as before

Diplomatic week: Ukraine remains in the same situation as before

A lot has happened this week, but exactly what has not happened is more revealing.

The first direct discussions between Ukraine and Russia

The first Direct discussions and Russia should have heralded a new era of diplomacy to solve the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Instead, the context, the brevity and the limited result, provided the skeptics of more reasons to doubt that Moscow is striving for peace.

a mixed conclusion

The three results-a prisoner exchange, Further discussions about a meeting of the presidents Waffe arrest - sound positively. However, prisoner exchanges are not uncommon, and Ukraine has already made it clear that it wants an immediate and unconditional ceasefire on land, water and in the air. In addition, she had offered direct negotiations between President Wolodymyr Selenskyj and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin - but Russia rejected these two suggestions, but explained on Friday to consider them again.

diplomacy at a standstill

Diplomacy did a long journey this week just to finally return to the point zero - exactly where everything started on Saturday. At that time, Ukraine, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland in Kiev called for an unconditional ceasefire for a month and published a photo of the heads of government in an interview with President Trump. They cheered on his support for the ceasefire, but also announced that France would introduce "massive sanctions" if Russia rejected the claim.

The recurring images

six days later, on Friday, another picture of the same five men who had once again gathered for a phone in the Albanian capital Tirana was published to speak to the potus. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed that it was "unacceptable" that Russia continues to ignore an armistice. The British Prime Minister Keir Strander said Putin had to "pay the prize for the refusal of peace".

insights into the negotiations

The symmetry of the demands and pictures was remarkable. Trump showed amazing diplomatic twists in the past week. Putin ignored the demands for an armistice and proposed direct discussions in Istanbul. Selenskyj confirmed that he was ready to meet Putin there while Trump agreed to perform as an intermediary. Putin, however, dismissed all suggestions with the exception of a less important meeting. Trump defused the urgency when he added that he had never expected that Putin would participate in Istanbul without his own appearance, and apparently came to the conclusion that "nothing will happen" before he hits the Kremlin boss.

The challenge of diplomacy

How the European leaders dealt with the call on Friday remains unclear - Macron was concerned at the center of the action - but they certainly had to remind Trump's promises. So far, Trump has been hesitant to put pressure on Putin or talk badly about him. Nevertheless, his credibility with his closest European allies is now at stake - "clever type" Macron and "hard negotiator", who had offered him a second state visit.

The constant of the situation

Two constants have become obvious. Putin takes little to print from Europe or America and suggests a minimalist peace offer with maximum demands without being ready to compromise. Trump seems to offer privately support for Ukraine and its allies, but is publicly shown as a provider of the olive branch for a bilateral meeting with the Kremlin chief as soon as Moscow is ready.

The limits of patience

Occasionally, this white house at Putin made it clear that her patience is limited and may soon be exhausted. Sometimes Trump even vaguely indicates these limits, as he casually mentioned secondary sanctions at the beginning of the week. But this impatience has not yet translated into the permanent measures that Europe wants to see.

summary of the current situation

The White House benefits from the artistic steps of the Kremlin, which seems to move towards peace, but Russia does enough to let Trump believe that it is seriously interested in it while no ground is being won - even on Friday the situation was complicated when Russia was reported that Ukraine has to cede that Russia has not yet conquered. There are enough vague, insoluble hints of diplomacy and other conversations to give the tempting promise of a possible agreement without actually sketching or achieving it. Obviously, Russia plays temporarily, as drone pictures show while it builds up forces on the eastern front, beforehand.

a clear view of reality

Sometimes moments of clarity illuminate the situation. This week may have made it clear where Moscow is really, but also to hesitate to hesitate from Trump, Putin pain. Clarity can be uncomfortable, and on Friday a sharp assessment of Trump's policy came from his former ambassador in Kiev, Bridget Brink, who has resigned last month.

A call to change

In an opinion contribution, Brink said: "Unfortunately, politics has been aimed at the victim of the victim, the Ukraine, instead of the aggressor, Russia since the beginning of the Trump administration. For this reason, I was no longer able to implement the politics of the government in good faith and felt it as my duty. Attachment does not lead to security, but leads to more war and suffering. ”

It may be too early to determine whether Trump's softness can be understood as a appeasement. But the US President has dampened a week of increasing tensions and pressure on Moscow by suggesting that no progress can be expected until he hits Putin.

conclusion: the uncertainty remains

and - as in the case of the difficult -to -tape summit between Trump, Selenskyj and Putin - we should not expect this explosive mix of ego, courtesy and dislike to lead to tangible results. Is the teaching of the past week that Trump will personally force Putin to accept concessions that the months of printing and years of brutal battles could not cause? Even a possible summit between Trump and Putin could not solve the war, but only reset diplomacy and possibly lead Ukraine back at the beginning.