Dax at a standstill: uncertainty after day of mourning and interest worries!

On January 9, 2025, the DAX moved in a narrow range between 20,245 and 20,360 points and closed at 20,317 points, which corresponds to a decline of 0.1%. The MDAX also closed at 25,581 points and also showed hardly any movement. The US markets remained closed on this day due to a national mourning day (death of Jimmy Carter), which led to a lack of impulses for the German market. The US exchanges had already charged customs care the day before.

The US working market report will be published next Friday, which could give investors already expected information on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The uncertainty among investors remains due to the inflation pressure in the USA and Europe. The returns of German federal bonds rose to 2.54%, French bonds reached 3.41%and US bonds climbed to 4.73%. The dollar benefited from the interest expectations and noted at $ 1.0305.

Current economic developments

German industrial production rose by 1.5% in November and exports have also increased. Bitcoin fell to around $ 94,200 after he had reached a maximum of almost $ 103,000 at the beginning of the week. The Munich re reported that the global damage caused by natural disasters in 2024 was $ 320 billion, which is related to climate change. Volkswagen recorded a decrease of 1.4% in sales in 2024, which corresponds to around 4.8 million cars, the Chinese market was particularly affected.

A positive aspect showed itself in the market share of German e-car manufacturers, which increase from 49% to 61%, despite the decline in sales figures. Lufthansa shares fell over 4% after a negative analyst comment from JP Morgan and lost around 20% in 2024. Ryanair plans to expand their flight offer at German regional airports by 800,000 seats. It is also reported that the Clinic software company Nexus leaves the SDAX while about you returns and is about to take over by Zalando.

The publication of the US labor market report for December on Friday could indicate moderate employment growth figures. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve (FED) to make its interest rate policy less aggressive given a slow increase in employment figures. In the last FED session in December, a slower pace of money policy relaxation was already signaled. Economists forecast 160,000 newly created positions in December after 227,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate could remain 4.2%. The average monthly job growth for 2024 is estimated at 180,000.