Trump stops military aid for Ukraine: Effects on War

Trump stops military aid for Ukraine: Effects on War

The US President Donald Trump has his ambitious endeavor to urge, intensify and intensify the US military aid for Ukraine exposed to immediate effect.

The effects of the decision

This step has sent shock waves through the western world and leaves Ukraine and its allies at a loss.

Trump did not explain his decision to argue that the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj "did not have the desire for peace". Advisor informed CNN that the break of military support remains until Trump decides that Selenskyj has shown enough commitment to peace talks.

Selenskyj indicated on Tuesday that he was ready to go this way and said that Ukraine was "ready to step on the negotiating table" and that "my team and I are ready to work on a permanent peace under the strong leadership of President Trump.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

Trump's command will have a direct impact on Ukraine's ability to defend itself against the non -provoked aggression in Russia.

Oleksiy Melnyk, an expert in international security and former civil servant in the Department of Defense in Ukraine, told CNN that US military aid is currently about 30 % of the need for weapons and ammunition of Ukraine.

"Is that critical? Yes," he said, pointing out the continuing bottlenecks of weapons and ammunition. Kyiv has been inferior to the comprehensive invasion of Russia since the first attacks, and the situation has intensified whenever the western deliveries accepted.

"In view of the lack of ammunition and weapons, even 1 % is crucial. Thirty percent are definitely critical. Is it tragic? What we hear from different sources is that the Ukraine can maintain this level or a similar level of violence density for about six months," said Melnyk.

"There will be significant consequences, but the Russians will probably not break through immediately or in the coming months," said Kateryna Stepanenko, deputy team leader for Russia and analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, an American conflict monitor.

Why does Trump act like that?

Trump tries to make Ukraine negotiate with Russia without commitment to the granting of security guarantees for Ukraine.

Selenskyj has tried to make it clear that an agreement would be potentially catastrophic without guarantees for Ukraine, since Putin has already violated ceasefire agreements in the past.

The Ukrainian guide received almost universal support from the western allies of Ukraine. The British Prime Minister Keir Standmer declared on Monday in British parliament that Security guarantees must be part of every peace agreement.

The reactions from Ukraine

MELNYK expressed that Ukraine had tried to understand in the past few weeks to understand that from Trump's statements as political announcements and which are only part of a strategy for the courtesy towards Russia.

"With every practical step it becomes clearer that President Trump and his team will implement exactly this as a policy. And at the moment it will not use anyone except our enemies and rivals such as Russia and China," he said.

This announcement caused shock and sadness in Ukraine. "Most Ukrainians worship the United States and are sincere when they say 'God bless America'," he added. "This is a kind of cold shower and probably one of the biggest shock of war."

First steps to support Europe

The United States is the largest individual provider of military aid for Ukraine, but not the only one. According to the Kiel Institute, which monitors the help of Ukraine, military aid from Europe is comparable to that of the United States, and at short notice, Europeans could step in to help Kiev close the gap.

This happened in the first half of the last year when the US aid deliveries accepted. At the same time, Ukraine has become more independent since the beginning of the full invasion in February 2022.

"The Ukrainians have significantly increased the production of drones, artillery and their own van.

On Tuesday, the European Union presented a plan to allow the Member States to borrow 150 billion euros ($ 158 billion) in order to increase its defense spending and to "increase massively" military support for Kiev. The EU used a similar approach to procure funds to cope with COVID-19 pandemic.

The challenges on the way to support

The hard truth is that even if Europe had the necessary funds, years would pass for years until the underfunded European defense sector can keep up with that of the United States. There are also weapons systems that can only provide the United States, including the patriot defense systems that are able to interfere with crops, hyper-fast rockets, short-distance baller missiles and aircraft.

"The USA consider the licenses for these systems and rockets, which makes it difficult for European countries to reproduce them," said Stepanenko. The Patriots play a crucial role in the air defense of Ukraine and protect millions of civilians who live across the country.

The next steps for Ukraine

Stepanenko said that the best option for Ukraine is to strengthen your coalition with Europe. "Ukraine has already laid good foundations by forming several initiatives, for example, several European countries have founded ammunition and drone initiatives as well as air defense initiatives, and I think now is the time to expand it," she added.

Trump has made no secret of the fact that he sees the current situation through an extremely personal lens and ascribes the fault for it completely Selenskyj. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO and former US special representative for Ukraine, said that he would advise Selenskyj to sign the contract for the mineral resources as soon as possible.

"This will unite the USA and Ukraine in the future and serve the interests of both countries," said Volker.

"If I could advise President Selenskyj, I would suggest that he is conducting a public signing of the agreement in front of the camera, in which he expresses his appreciation for the United States and the American people as a strategic partner of Ukraine, how the meeting in the oval office has expired, and clear that he is 100 % determined to achieve peace for Ukraine," he added In addition.

Selenskyj said on Tuesday that he was ready to sign the contract for minerals "at any time in every suitable format".

In a post on X, the Ukrainian president said that it was "regrettable that his meeting with Trump" did not go as planned ".

he added that Ukraine was "ready to step on the negotiating table" and that "my team and I are ready to work on a permanent peace under the strong leadership of President Trump.

A leading Russia analyst and historian, Mark Gelsotti, noted that Selenskyj and Ukraine may "have to go beyond the measure of friendly words" to repair the relationship.

The perspectives for the help

The last few weeks have shown that the Trump administration is ready to take a roller coaster ride to achieve their goals-and that nobody can predict what will happen next.

lough noticed that there still seems to be gaps in the politics of administration towards Ukraine - especially in the way different civil servants look at Putin. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio said last month after a meeting with Russian officials that it had to be shown whether Russia wanted to seriously peace.

"How do you reconciled what Trump says?

"President Trump is moody to express it mildly, but from a Ukrainian perspective you cannot rely on the fact that he suddenly shows grace and activates the help again and perhaps put President (Vladimir) under pressure. We have not seen any signs so far," he added

Trump has completed several turns to Ukraine in the past few weeks and once referred to Selenskyj as a dictator, only to deny this statement a few days later.

While the officials of the White House have declared that Selenskyj should come back as soon as he is ready to talk about peace, it remains to be seen whether Selenskyj's willingness to sign the contract for the mineral resources that could activate help.

geleotti is skeptical. "I think the basic point is that from Trump's point of view is a bought and paid vassal state and has to understand its place. So it's not just about a little flattering today. It is about the assurance that Ukraine now understands that it has to do everything that America commands it," he said.

The reporting was supported by CNN employees Lauren Kent, Brad Lendon, Niamh Kennedy and James Frater.