Trump threatens Iran: military ready for massive escalation!

Trump threatens Iran: military ready for massive escalation!

US President Donald Trump has tightened his stance towards Iran and is threatening military consequences if Tehran does not stop its nuclear program. "If it requires military action, we will use military force. Israel will of course be a leader in this," Trump said in a recent speech. However, no concrete timetable for military intervention was given. The president unequivocally emphasizes that Iran should under no circumstances have nuclear weapons. This escalation comes in the context of ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran, which are scheduled to continue on Saturday. Trump said the talks could be good or bad and warned: "If they fail, Iran is in great danger," he said.

The meeting is characterized by Iran as “indirect talks” at a high level in the Sultanate of Oman. Iran itself has emphasized in the past that its nuclear program has exclusively civilian purposes. However, in view of the USA's unilateral termination of the 2015 international nuclear agreement, Western states are increasingly accusing Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons. Since the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Iran has again violated the conditions set out there. The international community, including the EU and UN, were concerned about Iran's nuclear latency and called for improved controls.

The nuclear agreement in the context of escalation

The international nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed in Vienna in July 2015 and was a diplomatic success, but it did not last. Iran reduced its nuclear activities in exchange for gradual lifting of economic sanctions. However, the return of US sanctions under Trump in May 2018 led to a reduction in investments and general protests in Iran. Since 2019, Iran has said it is no longer bound by the deal's restrictions, raising further tensions.

In addition to the direct clashes, Trump's concerns also focus on the Iranian-backed Hashd al-Shaabi militias in Iraq. This alliance, once an ally of the USA in the fight against IS, is now emerging as a new threat. Trump recently deployed aircraft carriers and bombers to the region, while the Pentagon has highlighted the threat posed by these groups. However, experts doubt that Hashd al-Shaabi would attack US units due to the possible consequences of such an attack.

Militia and geopolitical tensions

The Hashd al-Shaabi militias, which were founded in 2014 to fight ISIS, have up to 120,000 members and have considerable influence in Iraq. British General Christopher Ghika, deputy commander of the anti-IS coalition, has stressed that his troops will continuously monitor the militias and respond if necessary. At the same time, there are concerns that elements within Hashd al-Shaabi, such as Kataib Hezbollah, could act on Tehran's side in the event of a conflict.

Given the tense geopolitical situation, the future of international surveillance measures remains uncertain. While both sides show a willingness to talk, the risks of further escalation are becoming clearly visible, especially in view of the military movements of the USA and the sometimes autonomous actions of the military groups in Iraq. These developments could further destabilize the region and have a lasting impact on the dynamics between the US and Iran.