Syria: New rulers strive for international legitimacy despite sanctions

Syria: New rulers strive for international legitimacy despite sanctions

The new Syrian government, led by a group with former connections to al-Qaida, strives to achieve international legitimacy-and already shows first successes.

mediation of international legitimacy

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, an internationally sanctioned former jihadist, has contacted foreign dignitaries in the past few days since his group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took the regime of the former President Bashar al-Assad. He tries to present the new Syrian government as a friendly, inviting and peaceful state.

meeting with the UN special envoy

On Sunday, Al-Jolani secured a meeting in Damascus with Geir Otto Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, who said that the international community hopes for an early end of the sanctions to promote the reconstruction of Syria. However, Pedersen warned that there must be "justice and responsibility for crimes", and that this has to be done through a "credible judicial system".

EU and international reactions

On Monday, EU foreign commissioner Kaja Kallas said that she had sent a European diplomat to Damascus to make contacts with the new government. Kallas added that the EU would consider further steps, "when we see that Syria is taking the right way." So far, the USA and the United Kingdom as well as Qatar and Turkey have also established contact with the ruling rebel groups in the country.

risks and opportunities for Syria

experts emphasize that current developments in Syria offer the chance to prevent a state collapse, but they also bring uncertainties and risks with them, since many new leaders have a questionable past. Al-Jolani, who is now known under his real name Ahmad al-Sharaa, and his group HTS quickly took control of the second largest city of Aleppo at the beginning of the month, followed by the strategically important city of Hama and finally the capital Damascus.

USA receive direct contacts

Despite its efforts to distance HTS from al-Qaida, the group in 2018 was classified by the USA as a foreign terrorist organization. The biographer Quaiba Idlbi from the Atlantic Council says that the inclusion of a group classified as a terrorist organization brings with it challenges, but also represents important means of pressure for the USA and international partners.

direct contacts between the USA and HTS

The new US president could use this means of expression to ensure that HTS acts as an acceptable player within the Syrian scenery and does not endanger the security interests of the United States and the region. On Saturday, the US Secretary of State Antony flashed that Washington had direct contact with HTS. This was the first public confirmation of direct communication between the USA and the group.

economic challenges of Syria

Syria has been suffering from the effects of western sanctions for years. The strictest of them are the Caesar law introduced in 2019, which imposed extensive sanctions, which prevent individuals, companies or governments from supporting Assad's war effort. According to the world bank, the country's economy has shrunk by more than half between 2010 and 2020.

poverty in Syria

In 2022, according to the World Bank, 69 % of the population was affected by poverty, while extreme poverty was more than every fourth Syrian. These numbers are likely to have deteriorated after a devastating earthquake in February 2023.

strategic approach for the future

IDLBI from the Atlantic Council points out that the fall of Assad represents a chance, but cannot be regarded as a panacea. He emphasizes that the bid and trump administration must accept a balanced and strategic approach that focuses on inclusive government, humanitarian support and regional stability. Such a unique opportunity requires careful administration so as not to flow into further instability.

reports at: CNN’s Jomana Karadsheh, Gul Tuysuz, Brice Laine, Lauren Kent, Eyad Kourd and Jennifer Hansler.