Trump's hard customs policy meets geopolitical reality

Trump's hard customs policy meets geopolitical reality

President Donald Trump's tireless use of tariffs in order to urge foreign partners to make advantageous agreements, faces the limits of geopolitical reality. His willingness to drastically escalate the long -lasting economic disputes of the United States in the course of Russia's war in Ukraine is real, say consultants. His threat of accelerating extensive tariffs on India will most likely become reality, they are pushing. However, he also sees himself opposite an upcoming appointment that requires a * trade in the world with the second largest economy in the world, which makes a certain caution necessary, while the considerations in the White House are intense.

Trump's diplomatic challenges

"He is upset," said a person from Trump's environment about his quickly falling opinion about Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. "But he is also aware of the competing priorities." Trump faces the unique challenge of reconciling all of his simultaneous requirements: he threatens to take hard sanctions against Russian energy production, which is considered a financial linchpin of Putin's war machine, while at the same time looking for a fragile discussions with India and maintaining a fragile trade relationship with China.

The forced situation in the White House

The convergence of contradictory priorities has initiated intensive discussions in West Wing about the range and the scope of the options that Trump could possibly trigger immediately. A significant weight falls on the meeting between Putin and Steve Witkoff, his trusting foreign envoy, which is currently taking place in Moscow.

Trump has threatened extensive secondary sanctions against Russian energy, which would mainly hit China and India, the two greatest customers of Russian energy. At the same time, he also considers tailor-made options, including sanctions that are aimed at specific tankers that are known and are used within the government to avoid the existing western sanctions when transporting Russian oil, two US officials who are familiar with the matter.

The influence of the bid administration

The developing sanctions measures of the bidding administration have success in the listing of the ships, which are decisive for Putin's efforts to circumvent sanctions. Secondary sanctions that are specially tailored to India were also considered, the officials said. Trump feels authorized to trigger these secondary sanctions that weighed up for a long time by his predecessor, but were not implemented due to the increasing inflation and the concerns regarding a significant increase in gas prices.

trading talks with India on the bracket

This dynamic also played a direct role in the recent collapse of the lengthy and intensive trade negotiations between the United States and India. While there are obviously overlaps between Trump's threats to Russia and its warnings of India's energy purchases, the dispute with the fourth largest economy in the world refers to the trade talks. "We are considering a wide range of options, but this is more of a favorable coincidence than a comprehensive strategic long -term goal," said one of the officials.

Trump recognized this himself: "The point of dispute with India is that the tariffs are too high," said Trump in an interview with CNBC. Peter Navarro, Trump's senior advisor for trade and industry, described India as "the MaharaScha of the tariffs" and thus underlined the long -term conviction that India's extensive protection of its inland markets is a significant frustration for Trump and his trading team.

Russia complicates the deal with China

A comprehensive attempt to trigger secondary sanctions would, however, directly into the delicate maintenance of the trade talks between the USA and China, which have used both countries for months with economic means, sanctions and export controls to put pressure on the bilateral relationship or to reduce it. Finance Minister Scott Bessent warned his Chinese counterparts during the third round of personal talks in the past week that Trump would have to prepare it seriously with the secondary sanctions and the Chinese officials in the coming weeks.

While the US and Chinese officials have had silent discussions about the technical details of an agreement to extend their existing trade rest, the concern about the effects that secondary sanctions on this dynamic would have perceived as a factor within the government. Trump has not yet officially approved an extension, even if his most important consultants have made it clear that it was only a matter of time until he gives his consent.

for Trump, who acts in a constant period during his second term in a constant period, the watch ticks at the same time as his deadline for Putin. The decision in relation to the latter is now heavily on the status of the former.