Trump's peace dream for Ukraine meets Russian reality

Trump's peace dream for Ukraine meets Russian reality

The arguments are well practiced and are now opposed to reality.

complexity of a ceasefire

a 30-day Waffeistraft is considered good news at the beginning. But such peace is the most complex and most affected idea of this decades of conflict. The way this ceasefire is implemented will define the support, sovereignty and survival ukrainas

The challenge for Moscow

According to an estimated hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians and Russians, it will not be easy for any side to reject a ceasefire. Moscow sees himself under pressure, to show that it is not the obstacle for President Donald Trumps The goal of peace at any price. This is a surreal position for the Kremlin, after three years of brutal aggression have passed without there being a public desire to end the war outside of US Russian diplomacy in the past two months.

The illusion of diplomacy

In order to maintain the illusion, Trump’s partner in this project, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to accept a form of peace. However, this could not be an immediate ceasefire, since Russia, as before, could delay the beginning and initially focus on military goals, especially in the Kursk region, where Ukraine is about to be about to lose the narrow stripes of Russian areas it has been holding.

critical questions about diplomacy

The theory of "telephone diplomacy" is put to the test. First of all, it should be noted that the Kremlin is difficult to trust when it comes to real diplomacy, as history shows. In addition, Kiev continues to have maximum ambitions to recapture its territory and rejects freezing the front lines, as this would mean the probably permanent loss of a fifth of its country. In addition, it is feared that the Ukraine cannot upgrade with the same energy as Moscow in the event of a new attack.

The reality of the war

For most Ukrainians, however, it is now clear that a counter-offensive to recapture territory is an unfulfilled dream, especially in view of the ongoing lack of ammunition and personnel that make the basic task of defending Russian attacks.

The dynamics of a ceasefire

The cruel reality and the chaos of this war will probably do little good for an armistice. Instead, every ceasefire could quickly lead to a bitter argument about who is responsible for its failure.

The next step in conflict

Putin's main goal is to continue to fuel Trump's suspicion that Selenskyj is the obstacle to peace. A ceasefire could not be rejected without losing the fictional moral advantage. What is decisive, however, is what happens next - during every break in hostility - and how this will define the course of the war.

The challenge of a one -month ceasefire

A complete ceasefire over all front lines for a whole month is an enormous challenge. Over hundreds of miles, both sides have used armored vehicles, artillery and drones in recent years to fight each other violently. The expectation that this suddenly stops for a month is unrealistic. Errors and misunderstandings are almost inevitable and could have serious consequences.

The dangers of misinformation

It seems almost impossible that there are no mistakes or collapse during such a break. Russia has worked primarily with misinformation in the past, and it is likely that false statements will be spread even during a ceasefire to justify an aggressive attitude.

outlook on peace

The story of the last decade speaks more for pessimism. Russia has assured several times not to plan a comprehensive attack on Ukraine and then had to strike. These incidents do not do good for trust in possible peace, and every assessment would have to take into account the previous strategy of Moscow.

The risks of a failed ceasefire are obvious: This could lead to the fact that Ukraine is incorrectly blamed for the failure of peace and its support is frozen again. It remains to be hoped that the international actors penetrate and not simply fall for Moscow's old propaganda.