Shock survey: Who will lead in the 2025 winter election campaign? Merz or Habeck?

As part of the upcoming federal election in 2025, a current survey by the ZDF political barometer shows that the candidates for chancellor Robert Habeck from the Greens and Friedrich Merz from the CDU/CSU are neck and neck. Both received 27% of the vote, with Habeck gaining 2% and Merz losing 2%. The Social Democrat Olaf Scholz achieved 14% (-2), while the AfD candidate Alice Weidel got 15% (-1). This survey was conducted January 7-9, 2025 among 1,433 eligible voters.

Particularly revealing is the direct choice between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, which sees Merz with 44% (unchanged) ahead of Scholz with 41% (-2). When it comes to a choice between Merz and Habeck, Merz is also ahead with 44% (-4) compared to Habeck, who achieved 41% (+2). The likeability ratings of politicians show that Boris Pistorius (1.7) and Hendrik Wüst (0.8) are relatively popular, while Alice Weidel (-2.4) and Christian Lindner (-1.6) receive less positive ratings.

Projections for the federal election

In the projection for the party distribution in the federal election, the CDU/CSU is at 30% (-1), while the SPD falls to 14% (-1). The Greens achieved 15% (+1), the FDP achieved 4% (+1) and the AfD achieved 21% (+2). The Left remains at 4% (unchanged), and 8% of the vote goes to other parties, which have lost 4%. In addition, 67% of those surveyed said that they could also imagine other parties.

Markus Söder, the chairman of the CSU, makes it clear that he rejects a joint government with the Greens and 70% of those surveyed doubt his ability to assert himself within the Union. In addition, 67% reject the AfD's participation in government, while 23% support it. There are signs of challenges in the election campaign, as 81% believe that personal attacks will be frequent. Russia's influence on German politics is rated as strong or very strong by 48% of those surveyed.

The survey results also show that the traffic light parties (SPD, Greens, FDP) have lost popularity. According to the survey, the previous traffic light government would no longer be able to achieve a majority in the Bundestag. Low approval rates for Olaf Scholz (SPD) indicate that voters consider the issues of the economy, migration, energy and climate to be particularly important.

The survey was conducted by the Mannheim Elections Research Group and the results are subject to a margin of error of +/- three percentage points at 40% and +/- two percentage points at 10%. The next political barometer will be published on January 24, 2025.