Shock survey: Who leads in the winter election campaign 2025? Merz or Habeck?

As part of the upcoming Bundestag election 2025, a current survey by the ZDF Politbarometer shows that Chancellor candidates Robert Habeck from the Greens and Friedrich Merz from the CDU/CSU are on par. Both received 27% of the votes, where Habeck increased by 2% and Merz gave up by 2%. Social Democrat Olaf Scholz reaches 14% (-2), while AfD candidate Alice Weidel comes to 15% (-1). This survey was carried out under 1,433 voters from January 7th to 9th, 2025.

The direct choice between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, which Merz sees with 44% (unchanged) before Scholz with 41% (-2), is particularly revealing. When it comes to a choice between Merz and Habeck, Merz is also at the front with 44% (-4) opposite Habeck, which reaches 41% (+2). The politicians' sympathy values ​​show that Boris Pistorius (1.7) and Hendrik Wüst (0.8) are relatively popular, while Alice Weidel (-2.4) and Christian Lindner (-1.6) receive less positive reviews.

projections for the Bundestag election

In the projection for the party distribution in the Bundestag election, the CDU/CSU is 30% (-1), while the SPD drops to 14% (-1). The Greens achieve 15% (+1), the FDP comes to 4% (+1) and the AfD reaches 21% (+2). The left remains at 4% (unchanged), and 8% of the votes are eliminated by other parties that have lost 4%. In addition, 67% of the respondents state that they can also imagine other parties.

Markus Söder, the chairman of the CSU, illustrates that he rejects a joint government with the Greens and 70% of those surveyed doubt his enforcement ability within the Union. In addition, 67% rejected a government participation of the AfD, while 23% of it advocates it. Challenges in the election campaign indicate that 81% believe that personal attacks will often occur. The influence of Russia on German politics is assessed by 48% of those surveyed as strong or very strong.

The survey results also show that the traffic light parties (SPD, Greens, FDP) have lost in encouragement. According to the survey, the former traffic light government would no longer be able to reach a majority in the Bundestag. Low approval rates for Olaf Scholz (SPD) indicate that voters consider the topics of business, migration as well as energy and climate to be important.

The survey was carried out by the Mannheim research group elections and the results are subject to an error range of +/- three percentage points at 40% and +/- two percentage points at 10%. The next political barometer will be released on January 24, 2025.