Ukrainian ceasefire asks Putin to reveal war goals
Ukrainian ceasefire asks Putin to reveal war goals
kyjiw, Ukraine - it is a suggestion that the Kremlin cannot reject or accept, but one who could force him in an unpleasant situation and the true interest of Russia's President Wladimir Putin revealed on his brutal war.
Europe's efforts for negotiations
The leadership of Europe asked whether In order to move Moscow to a violent stop, especially at a time when an escalation of the attacks in the coming summer months is likely.
preparations for a tense peace
For the largest army in Europe - Ukraine - there is only a little more than 30 hours to prepare their front troops for perhaps a month tense peace and hopefully for weeks of serious negotiations in which the borders of their country are redefined.
The diplomatic successes of last week
In the end, Ukraine, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland were faced with a difficult decision: the public loss of patience from the Trump administration-sometimes with Moscow, but also less justified with Kiev-burged the risk that the white house simply "continues". This could lead to the United States' help for Ukraine, which would mean a disaster for European security.The past diplomatic efforts
The clear diplomatic commitment of France President Emmanuel Macron, the British Prime Minister Keir and of course the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj Himelf has brought the White House into a position in which it has to support a direct European attempt to check the outcome of the greatest war on the continent since the 1940s.
The pressure on the Kremlin
Europe forces Russia to start a offer of the USA and Ukraine-a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, which was proposed almost two months ago after a bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the white house is urged to monitor the ceasefire and, if possible non -compliance with Russia, to promise “massive sanctions” should this efforts fail.
The reaction of the Kremlin to the proposal
The previous answer of the Kremlin, "we have to talk about the nuances" is no longer enough. He has to agree to the proposal, contest it or ignore it. It is likely that, as we have seen in the past, he will construct a complicated answer. Russia could agree to the ceasefire, but at the same time staged an increase in violence for which they can blame the Ukrainians.
The challenges of the impending peace
For Ukraine and its allies, massive questions remain open to how this ceasefire can come into force. Can Kyiv instruct his armed forces not to defend himself for self -defense? If the United States is supposed to monitor the ceasefire, as Macron suggested, do you have the necessary capacity to observe violent front lines hundreds of kilometers? Precise evidence of Moscow violations will be crucial to counter the inevitable wave of Russian misinformation and accusations that could go hand in hand with an armistice.
costs and consequences for Ukraine
The next four weeks could bring high costs for Kyiv and Europe. The Ukraine could accept outdoor losses because its troops weaken their reactions to Russian attacks during the ceasefire. If the white house withdraws from this process, it could be convinced that Selenskyj is the problem. The unity of Europe, which is remarkable in Kiev today and is supported by more than a dozen other countries from New Zealand to Canada, could continue to be endangered, especially if American support for Ukraine wanes.
The historical context and the teachings from history
The costs of the non -tunes - like in Europe of the 1930s - would be higher. An impatient Trump could harm Kyiv more than Moscow. Putin would have two more months to nibble on the front lines of Kiev, which Selenskyj could lead in the winter of 2023, which could be cruel again.
clarification of the intentions of the Kremlin
Ukraine and its European allies expect this proposal whether Putin is interested in peace at all. However, the selected path there is unclear and expected with numerous pitfalls of manipulation on the part of Putin.
The strategic considerations of European leaders
At a meeting of the five largest military in Europe in Kiev on Saturday, it seemed as if most had already decided that Putin does not want peace and will not seriously consider it for a month. These five guides are a difficult week ago to consolidate this fact and at the same time convince Trump to take a harder attitude towards Russia than his predecessor Joe Biden.
The future of warfare in Europe
The path that European leaders have in mind seems to be running out of the war - where Putin breaks a ceasefire, punished with "massive sanctions" and Europe has to further expand its military support for Ukraine. They don't seem to believe that the Kremlin is ready to end the war. The coming weeks seem to have to prove that they have to be misleading Trump and have to go into their warehouse permanently and irrevocably.
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