Survive NATO without the USA? The answer could surprise
Survive NATO without the USA? The answer could surprise
in South Korea, where the topic of security and geopolitical stability is of great importance, the question arises as to what European security policy could look like in the future. After almost 80 years in which the United States acted as a backbone of NATO, the reliability of this partner is increasingly questioned.
The uncertainty about US support
The public hostility of former President Donald Trump vis -à -vis the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj and his willingness to be in close contact with Vladimir Putin have caused Europe to think about its security strategies. Would the USA defend NATO allies if they didn't "pay"? Such a statement ensures uncertainty. In view of the greatest war in Europe since the 1940s, European leaders inevitably have to ask the unimaginable question: Is the United States a reliable security partner?
NATO: More than just the USA
Analysts emphasize that NATO is by no means powerless without the United States. With over a million soldiers and the latest weapons from the 31 other member countries of Allianz, Europe has the opportunity to defend itself. In addition, Europe has the necessary knowledge and technological means to ensure security independently. The United States and Germany are the largest contributors to NATO's military budget, followed by Great Britain and France. Experts agree that Europe can close the gap that would leave the possible loss of US contributions.
Europe's military capacities
A united Europe could develop serious conventional and nuclear deterrence towards Russia, according to Ben Schreer, the European Managing Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). However, the will is on the brink. As Schreaer emphasizes, the central question arises whether Europe is willing to mobilize the resources for its defense.
past and present show that transatlantic solidarity, which has existed for decades, has had cracks in the past few days. Trump's conflict with Selenskyj and his decision to stop the US aid for Ukraine have led to a feeling of estrangement. Experts warn that the United States increasingly see itself as competitors and not as an ally. This gap is considered irreparable by many.
opportunities for a Europe without the USA
Despite these challenges, some analysts are convinced that a NATO alliance would not be negative without the United States. As soon as the European countries are convinced that they can no longer trust the US military capacities, they could quickly expand their own skills and adapt their defense strategies. The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk explained optimistically that Europe was able to gain any military and economic confrontation with Russia, provided that the European countries begin to believe in themselves.
The military strengths of NATO
In theory, a European military could be extremely strong. Turkey has the largest armed forces of NATO to the USA, followed by France, Germany and Poland. There are also considerable differences in Russia in terms of weapon technology: While Russia only has an outdated aircraft carrier, the UK and France can use modern carriers and better equip their air forces.The future of NATO and European security
Some hope that the discussion about a possible US return from NATO is only a bluff Trump to persuade the EU countries to further defense investments. There was a similar situation in Trump's first term when he advocated a deduction of the US troops from South Korea. Nevertheless, many US troops remained permanently stationed. This experience shows that a similar scenario may be conceivable in Europe if there are tensions between Trump and Putin.
Europe faces a crucial turn in its security architecture. The question of whether the United States will remain a reliable partner could significantly influence the future of NATO.
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