Will NATO survive without the USA? The answer might surprise

Will NATO survive without the USA? The answer might surprise

In South Korea, where the issue of security and geopolitical stability is of great importance, the question arises as to what European security policy could look like in the future. After nearly 80 years of the United States serving as the backbone of NATO, the reliability of this partner is increasingly being questioned.

The uncertainty about US support

Former President Donald Trump's public hostility toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his willingness to remain in close contact with Vladimir Putin have led Europe to rethink its security strategies. Would the US defend NATO allies if they didn’t “pay”? Such a statement creates uncertainty. Faced with the largest war in Europe since the 1940s, European leaders must inevitably ask the unimaginable question: Is the United States a reliable security partner?

NATO: More than just the USA

Analysts emphasize that NATO is by no means powerless without the USA. With over a million soldiers and state-of-the-art weapons from the 31 remaining member countries of the alliance, Europe has the ability to defend itself. In addition, Europe has the necessary knowledge and technological means to ensure security independently. The USA and Germany are the largest contributors to NATO's military budget, followed by Great Britain and France. Experts agree that Europe can relatively easily fill the gap that would be left by a possible loss of US contributions.

Europe's military capabilities

A united Europe could develop a serious conventional and nuclear deterrent against Russia, according to Ben Schreer, European executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). However, the will to do so is in jeopardy. As Schreer emphasizes, the key question is whether Europe is ready to mobilize the resources for its defense.

Past and present show that the transatlantic solidarity that has endured for decades has cracked in recent days. Trump's conflict with Zelensky and his decision to stop US aid to Ukraine have created a sense of alienation. Experts warn that the US is increasingly seeing itself as a competitor rather than an ally. This divide is seen by many as irreparable.

Opportunities for a Europe without the USA

Despite these challenges, some analysts are convinced that a NATO alliance without the US would not necessarily be negative. Once European countries are convinced that they can no longer rely on US military capabilities, they could quickly expand their own capabilities and adapt their defense strategies. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk optimistically stated that Europe is capable of winning any military and economic confrontation with Russia, provided European countries begin to believe in themselves.

NATO's military strengths

In theory, a European military could be enormously powerful. Turkey has NATO's largest armed forces after the United States, followed by France, Germany and Poland. There are also significant differences to Russia when it comes to weapons technology: While Russia only has an outdated aircraft carrier, the UK and France can use modern carriers and better equip their air forces.

The future of NATO and European security

Some hope that the discussion about a possible US departure from NATO is just a bluff by Trump to persuade EU countries to make further defense investments. A similar situation already existed in Trump's first term in office, when he called for a withdrawal of US troops from South Korea. Nevertheless, many US troops remained stationed permanently. This experience shows that a similar scenario may also be conceivable in Europe if tensions arise between Trump and Putin.

Europe is facing a decisive shift in its security architecture. The question of whether the USA remains a reliable partner could have a significant impact on the future of NATO.