The Russia-Ukraine peace process is slowly running according to Moscow's plan
The Russia-Ukraine peace process is slowly running according to Moscow's plan
kyjiw, Ukraine - the plan of the Kremlin opens, and it seems as if the white house could do little against it. The decision of President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, Minister of Defense Rustam Umerow to meet a meeting with a low -class Russian delegation in Istanbul was a difficult choice that was born out of necessity. However, the target person of this encounter is Donald Trump, the President of the United States.
The pressure on Ukraine
kyjiw must make it clear that it is ready to take every conceivable step to promote peace. Otherwise, Ukraine risks that Trump perceives the Pro-Kremlin voices around him more, loses interest in the negotiations and possibly restricts support for Ukraine.
The role of the Kremlin in the peace process
The peace process develops exactly according to the plan of Russia - slowly and with the Kremlin as a director. Last week, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland with Ukraine, challenged themselves and a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, which is scheduled to begin on Monday. In this context it becomes clear how Putin and Trump really feel.
Putin's calculations and Jesenzys diplomacy
One of the main devices is that the Kremlin is not afraid of further sanctions or European pressure and does not allow Trump to change their mind. President Vladimir Putin currently sees the possible domestic risks of a photo shoot in addition to the US President and his Ukrainian adversary to be far higher than the potential damage that could cause Trump's anger. His rejection of this initiative is a calculated risk that may already be paid.
Trump's reaction and their consequences
Trump's reaction, "Nothing will happen and Putin meets Expectations of diplomacy overboard until the two come together at a bilateral summit. This situation enables Putin to pursue his own course while the President of the White House is convinced that there can be no progress until the two presidents meet personally.
The prospects for a bilateral meeting
It is not excluded that a bilateral meeting could take place soon or that the talks in Istanbul could lead to a lead summit on Friday. But Putin seems to enjoy the peace process with a pinch of apparent sincerity so that the white house does not give up. So why rush? its troops collect in the back of the head with a larger strategic goal.
Putin's strategy and Selenskyj's challenge
Putin's decision to reject Trump's offer shows two important aspects of his way of thinking. He was ready to risk the threatened "massive sanctions" of France for rejection of the ceasefire and the summit in Istanbul. In addition, he probably also correctly assessed the limited rage of Trump. The Kremlin chief was even ready to wait three days of speculation about his participation and at the same time reject Trump's persuasion of persuasion, while the world was waiting for the occupation of the Russian delegation.
The uncertainty of the conversations
It could be that Putin is negotiating behind the scenes about a bilateral meeting with Trump as part of the talks in Turkey or striving for explicit conditions or concessions before a presidential summit, or it could also be that he had no intention to accept Selenskyj's offer. We may never find out.The desperate location of Ukraine
Selenskyj now faces a difficult situation in which he has to move near the conversations if they suddenly escalate without giving the impression that he is waiting for Putin's next step. A planned summit - he said in advance - is pending in Albania for Friday, but then he urgently has to return to the war.
The perspectives for sanctions against Russia
It is slowly becoming clear that Trump may continue to shy away from the additional sanctions that Europe and its white house have indicated. The limited and "technical" nature of the Russian team in Istanbul will give Trump enough reason to hope for progress and to delay the suffering for Moscow. The conversations will probably be stalled, the Kremlin will present a number of maximum demands, while Ukraine is angry with an armistice that continues to reject Russia.
The course of the talks remains uncertain
Even with the participation of Trump's high officials on Friday, there is hardly any noteworthy progress; There will probably only be discussions about further discussions. And that's exactly how the Kremlin wants it