Europeans fear historical insignificance from Putin's deal with Trump

Europeans fear historical insignificance from Putin's deal with Trump

European capitals are not for the first time concerned that The Russian president Vladimir Putin specifically split and Everything he could achieve in of Ukraine . In the run-up to the suddenly announced summit in Alaska European diplomat that wanted to remain anonymous towards CNN: "We run the risk of only a footnote in history."

European worries and ambiguities

The European concern is partly due to how little is known about the proposals of the Kremlin to end the fights in Ukraine. Putin has not published any details. The US special envoy Steve Witkoff said nothing after his meeting with the Russian leader on Wednesday. Trump himself said after the departure from Witkoff from Moscow: "It is very complicated. We will get something back, we will exchange a little. There will be an exchange of territories for the advantage of both sides." However, the Europeans fear that “the advantage for both” is a very unlikely result.

Maximum demands and territorial integrity

There is no sign that Putin has deployed from his maximum demands - be it territorial or with regard to Ukraine, which is to serve as a setback for Russia without security guarantees and with restrictions on their military strengths. "In Paris, Berlin or London, there is no feeling that this US administration is important to conquer someone else's territory, and the Europeans find it extremely worrying," the diplomat.

joint explanation of the European leaders

The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and the EU was forced to say in a joint explanation on Saturday: "We remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by violence." Poland and Finland also signed the explanation. They spent the majority of the day, US Vice President JD Vance, who was just beginning to convince his vacation in the United Kingdom and to maintain clarity about the negotiation content.

warfare and geopolitical consequences

The report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that Putin's Trump administration has described alleged demands for an armistice in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6. A thread through all of these versions is that Putin will demand that the Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from all parts of the Donetsk area that they still hold. These include important cities such as Slowjansk, Kramatorsk and Kostjantynivka.

The parallels to the Munich explanation

"to give such a claim, the Ukraine would force to give up its" fortress ring ", the most important fortified line of defense in the Oblast Donetsk since 2014", noticed the ISW and would expose Ukraine to further aggression. Mick Ryan, who pursues the Ukrainian conflict in his blog Futura Doctrina, said on Sunday that "Ukraine was more Others understand that the territory cast would then be used as a springboard for future Russian aggression. ” The parallels to the Munich Agreement between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler in 1938 are astonishing.

questions of sovereignty and security guarantees

It remains unclear whether Putin will continue to demand that Russia will also receive control over two other Ukrainian regions - Cherson and Saporischschja - whose regional capitals are still in Ukrainian hands. Or whether he would accept a ceasefire line along the current front lines of these regions, of which part of which runs through open country and would be difficult to monitor.

political realities and European isolation

It is also unclear whether Putin will request that Ukraine recognize Moscow's sovereignty over the Crimea, and if so, what it could offer. Selenskyj has already pointed out that the Ukrainian constitution does not allow the task of territories. There are also questions about the course of the events, with Europeans to consider an armistice as a prerequisite for all discussions about territories. "The current contact line should be the starting point for the negotiations," said the European leaders on Saturday.

challenges for European security

another unknown: whether the Kremlin gets into a kind of European “security guarantee group” that would guarantee the ceasefire. All previous signs indicate that he no NATO member state participate. In a statement on Saturday, the European leaders emphasized that there must be “robust and credible security guarantees that enable Ukraine to effectively defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The role of European countries in the current conflict

But experience shows that Europeans may try to flatter and appease Trump for free. "Since its inauguration in January, Europeans have bought unlimited passports for the Trump-Achterbahn ride. They strapped and shouted regularly with fear, but could not get out," said Rym Meltaz from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. You pay the price that you have not developed a strategic identity regardless of the US interests, as French President Emmanuel Macron has been asking for eight years

strategy and geopolitical implications

As much as they want to support and protect Ukraine, Europeans are forced to plead and speculate what could be decided in their absence. EU foreign representative Kaja Kallas said on Sunday that "any agreement between the United States and Russia has to include Ukraine and the EU, because it is about the security of Ukraine and all of Europe." Ryan, a former Australian general who is now pursuing the conflict, notes that Europe's dilemma is much more dangerous than it should be, since the United States itself has no clear strategy for Ukraine. "There is only anger, impulses, posts on social media, multiple changes of course and Trump's wish to win the Nobel Peace Prize."