AfD becomes a strong power in Germany despite losses of power

AfD becomes a strong power in Germany despite losses of power

Germany's political system is designed to exclude extremists. But the country is facing a new political reality that has shifted to the right. The former outsider party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now firmly anchored in the German political structure.

Election results and political changes

Mainstream conservative parties, as polls predicted, won the largest share of votes in Sunday's election and will seek to form the next government, while the AfD came in second place. But this second place is a remarkable result for a party that, although unlikely to win office, is set to grow in influence.

The AfD has doubled its support since the last election in 2021, where it received 10.3% of the vote. It is now the first right-wing extremist party in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany to achieve such widespread public support and has also significantly increased its share of seats in the Bundestag.

Regional strengths and support

The AfD was able to win a particularly large number of voters in East Germany, where it has long had a stronghold. But the AfD also found considerable support in the west of the country, for example in the industrial stronghold of Gelsenkirchen, which is struggling with a stagnating economy and high unemployment, and in Kaiserslautern, which is surrounded by several US military bases.

“We have never been so strong – we are the second largest force,” said AfD co-chairwoman Alice Weidel in her address to the crowd in Berlin after the exit poll results were announced on Sunday evening.

Political reactions and challenges

The mood at the AfD election rally in Berlin was euphoric when the first results appeared on the screens and people cheered with German flags. CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is expected to become Germany's next chancellor, declared victory and criticized US intervention in the election campaign, which saw senior members of the Trump administration support the AfD.

“These interventions are no less dramatic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow,” said Merz. The AfD was founded in 2013 in response to European financial policy and has long been anchored on the fringes of German politics, in a country scarred by its Nazi past. Extreme right-wing parties have always been viewed with caution.

A turning point in German politics

The AfD was able to secure seats in the Bundestag for the first time in 2017, but has long struggled for visibility in traditional media due to its rigid anti-migrant and anti-Islam rhetoric. This election marks the first time that the party has fielded a candidate for chancellor.

The AfD calls for “remigration” – the mass expulsion of migrants. This controversial policy is often compared to the Nazi era. The party is officially suspected by the German authorities of right-wing extremism and parts of its structures are under surveillance.

Political debate and strategic orientations

But all of this seems to have changed. The AfD is now the largest opposition party in Germany, making it a serious political player that cannot be ignored. It has largely dominated the debate in Germany and forced traditional rivals to do more to retain voters.

The rise of the AfD is also reflected in other European countries where the extreme right has gained influence. In the Netherlands, France or Austria, such parties can no longer be easily dismissed as political outsiders when they have won significant shares of the vote or even govern the country in Italy.

The pressure on the established parties

Having a significant voice in parliament means the AfD can “put pressure on the major parties from a stronger position,” explained Gemma Loomes, a lecturer in comparative politics at Keele University. “The increase in support will encourage the party to perhaps even speak more aggressively about the issues that matter most to it but that the larger parties are reluctant to address,” she added.

This raises the question: can the so-called “fire brigade system” – an unofficial agreement between the established parties in Germany to keep the AfD out of power – remain in place?

Future outlook and election goals

In a show of self-confidence, the leader of the AfD's youth organization, "Junge Alternative" (JA), told CNN on election night that he was "certain" that the fire service system would no longer exist after Sunday. Merz's controversial decision to push through an immigration law with the help of the AfD in January could be an early sign of how he plans to proceed in his chancellorship.

The political forecasts indicate that AfD politicians have already set their sights on the next election in 2029, when they are convinced that the fire service system will no longer exist. “I am sure that this so-called ‘fire brigade system’ will end after this election,” said Hannes Gnauck, the chairman of the JA, on Sunday evening. “There will be a CDU after Friedrich Merz, and this CDU will have to work with the AfD.”

Political risks and uncertainties for the CDU

Merz now faces a fine line as he tries to form a new government and chart a new course for the CDU. The CDU was always present in the post-war period and played a central role in the reunification of East and West Germany. But at the same time, everything has changed since her last reign.

Merz has promised to lead the party back to its more conservative roots to counter the AfD. However, this turnaround carries risks. This could strengthen the AfD while the CDU isolates its center-left electorate. According to Loomes, this decision is “fraught with danger.”

“The AfD has positioned itself as the only party willing to talk about immigration and demand radical measures to solve the perceived problem,” she said. “If the CDU positions itself in this area, there is a risk of being perceived as a less authentic version of the AfD.”

The new government under Merz is also likely to include the other major center-left party, the Social Democrats (SPD), which led in the previous coalition and came third on Sunday. But building a coalition could prove difficult because the two parties may disagree on some key issues, particularly foreign policy.

Transatlantic relations and new challenges

While Germany has long viewed far-right parties with a distaste not seen in other European neighbors, some Germans believe the time has come to break old taboos. The AfD's strong transatlantic support strengthens this view.

The tech billionaire Elon Musk spoke during a surprise appearance at the AfD's election launch in January, saying: "There is too much focus on past guilt and we need to get over it." In his speech, which was similar to the AfD's positions, he received stormy applause.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said in a tough speech at the Munich Security Council that there was “no place for firefighting systems” in a democracy, a clear reference to the AfD. Merz will be forced to contend with a Trump administration that praises a key rival and appears to be dismantling long-term security ties between Europe and the United States.

A strong Berlin and a united Europe seem more important than ever. The continent is looking for leadership as Trump pushes forward peace talks on Ukraine without his involvement. For Merz, Europe's independence from the USA is a top priority. “My ultimate goal will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that step by step we can truly achieve independence from the USA,” he said during a televised panel with other party leaders on Sunday evening.

While the political mainstream in Germany has turned away from a radical right-wing government, Merz's challenges are just beginning.

Contribution by Nadine Schmidt, CNN