Last boats from China arrive - prices rise, bottlenecks threaten

Last boats from China arrive - prices rise, bottlenecks threaten

At the moment, some of the last cargo ships with Chinese goods reach the US ports without overwhelming tariffs. But this will change in the coming week.

rising tariffs on Chinese products

freighter, which were loaded from China after April 9, must expect the high tariffs of 145%, which President Donald Trump imposed on products from this country last month. These goods will arrive in the next week, but there will be fewer ships at sea and the conveyed amount will be lower. For many importers it is currently too expensive to do business with China.

China's role in American trade

Despite the rising tariffs, China remains one of the most important trading partners for the USA. Many of our clothes, shoes, electronics and microchips that drive our household appliances and thermostats come from China. Companies are faced with the difficult choice of offering products from China at excessive prices or deleting them entirely from the range. For consumers, this means that some products are difficult to find or may be too expensive.

decline in import quantities and inventory

"From next week we start to feel the effects of the customs announcement of April 2," said Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the port of Los Angeles, where almost half of the business comes from China. "The freight that comes to Los Angeles will decrease by 35% compared to the previous year." According to the National Retail Federation, imports of the United States are expected to decrease by at least 20% compared to the previous year in the second half of 2025. The decline in imports from China will be even more drasty: JP Morgan expects a decrease of 75% to 80% of imports from this country.

effects on consumers

"If these declines cannot be easily replaced by imports from other countries, such a decline would not only drive up the prices sharply, but also consider the supply chains considerably," said JP Morgan in his report. This means less work, higher prices in shops and less choice for consumers. Seroka noticed that the countdown has already started. "Many large retailers have informed us that they currently have a warehouse of six to eight weeks," said Seroka. "Manufacturers and consumers in the United States will face difficult decisions in the coming weeks and months if the political framework does not change."

empty ports and falling availability of freight

In the port of Shanghai in China, the largest cargo ships are idle in front of anchors. The shipping companies have started to use smaller ships to transport the freight as the demand subsides. Nevertheless, the journeys from China to the United States fell by 60% in April, according to Flexport, a logistics and freight service provider. "The shipping companies have canceled many trips and said: 'We won't sail this ship half full. We leave it here'," said Ryan Peterson, the CEO of Flexport. There are many ships that are only off the coast of China and are waiting for a cheap business.

price increase in the shops

As soon as the freight reach the US ports, it only takes a few weeks for the products to be available in the shops. If the current inventory is used up, more expensive, unwilled articles will land on the shelves. "There are great worries. The retailers are currently trying to plan their orders for school and Christmas," said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.

While larger retailers can create more inventory, smaller companies do not have this option. "Small retailers in particular who are unable to cushion the Tarus bins try to find out how to proceed," added Gold. Americans are dependent on China for thousands of products, from flat screen TVs to strollers. According to the United States International Trade Commission, US companies import more toys, clothing and shoes from China than from any other country.

Overview of the challenges of the supply chain

Four -four percent of the managers in the supply chain expect that they have to pass on the higher tariffs to their customers, according to a new survey by Gartner, a corporate research company. Seroka does not see any empty shelves to come, but a reduced selection. "If you are looking for a certain type of trousers, you may find many different pants, but not exactly those you want. The pants you want will be more expensive," said Seroka. Flexports Peterson, on the other hand, is less optimistic. "If this continues for a few more weeks, the retailers will sell their inventory and will probably be faced with bottlenecks and empty shelves in summer," he added.

less freight means less work

Since fewer cargo ships can be expected in the US ports, local economies will immediately affect Seroka. Shops with China make up 45% of the portfolio of the port of Los Angeles, which is the highest proportion of all US ports. Without this volume, the demand for workers will decrease. "I don't see any massive layoffs in the harbor, but I see that a truck driver who transports four or five containers today will probably only drive two or three after the next week. And the port workers who have worked is probably less than a full week because fewer containers arrive.

The American Trucking Associations has asked President Trump to complete trade agreements with important trading partners such as Canada, Mexico and China to protect the truck jobs. "The longer the tariffs exist, the greater the pain for the truck drivers and for families and companies that we serve," said Chris Spear, President and CEO of American Trucking Associations last month. "The tariffs not only reduce cross -border freight traffic, but also increase operating costs. The price for a new truck could increase by up to $ 35,000, which could lead to an annual tax of $ 2 billion and make new vehicles unable to for small transport companies."

Since the crisis situation in the supply chain during the pandemic, retailers have tried to move China to Vietnam and to other Asian countries with production capacities. But Gold realizes that imports from these countries are not sufficient to compensate for the decline in the freight from China. "It takes time, months and possibly years to build these new relationships. To ensure that the new suppliers have the necessary capacity, well -trained workers and the right infrastructure. All test requirements that have to be met for products, especially for products for children," said Gold. "This is nothing that can happen overnight."