Europe Prepares Citizens for War – Will They Listen?

Europe Prepares Citizens for War – Will They Listen?

Survival guides, stockpiling and large-scale evacuation drills. Europe is striving to prepare its citizens for the growing risks of conflict on their own doorstep. In recent months, several European nations have issued sobering guidelines, ranging from turning garages and subway stations into bunkers to promoting psychological resilience.

Changing the mindset of the population

A central message is that a rethinking of the population is necessary in order to become ready for war. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told security experts in Brussels in December: “It is time for a shift to a wartime mindset.” The statement comes as European leaders fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin, emboldened by successes in Ukraine, may seek to expand further into the continent. At the same time, the decades-long and powerful alliance with the United States is taking an increasingly hostile stance towards maintaining European security, raising doubts about its willingness to intervene in the event of an invasion of a NATO country.

Preparations in Europe

The European Commission has called on all citizens to stockpile enough food and other essential supplies to last them for at least 72 hours in a crisis situation. The guidelines published in March stressed that Europe must promote a culture of “preparation” and “resilience”. At the individual level, various countries have also issued their own instructions for emergencies, including war.

In June last year, Germany updated its overall defense framework directive. It describes what to do in the event of a conflict in Europe and outlines a complete transformation of everyday life for German citizens in the event of war. Sweden released a survival guide called “When Crisis or War Comes” in November, updated for the first time in six years. This booklet was distributed to millions of households and provides instructions on how to warn in the event of war.

Protective measures and advice

The guide informs Swedes about warning systems in the event of war, including an external system operational in most areas. The instruction reads: "Go into the house, close all windows and doors and, if possible, turn off the ventilation. Listen to Swedish broadcaster Sveriges Radio, channel P4, for more information." He also offers advice on safe locations during an air raid, such as basements, garages and subway stations. The document advises lying low outdoors without immediate shelter, “preferably in a small pit or ditch.” For Sweden, there is specific guidance on nuclear attacks, including the advice to "move to safety as you would during an air raid. Civil defense shelters provide the best protection."

For Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, defending its sovereignty against Moscow is part of the national consciousness. The country has been preparing for the possibility of conflict with Russia for decades, and the construction of bomb shelters under residential and office buildings has been mandatory since the 1950s.

Will the population react?

However, the updated civil protection guidelines have no guarantee as to how seriously they will be followed by citizens. Claudia Major, senior vice president for transatlantic security at the German Marshall Fund, appeals for the seriousness of the instructions. She emphasizes the need to prepare not only for a direct military threat from Russia, but also for what she calls a "gray area" between war and peace - including more aggressive actions and hybrid warfare.

The challenges of relevance

Major points out that for some countries, particularly those within Moscow's sphere of influence, it is much more tangible, while for others it is more difficult to grasp. She mentions Finland and the Baltic states, where the threat from Russia is deeply rooted in the national DNA.

"The existential threat, the fear of being overrun and disappearing from the map, is very real in the Baltic states. They wonder why other countries don't understand this," says Major. The Finns took defense seriously throughout the Cold War. "Why are we all now looking at Finland and looking at their bunker system and medical supplies? They have learned from history; no one will help us. We have to do it ourselves."

The importance of preparation

The effectiveness of such civil protection plans remains unclear. In the past they were even laughed at. During the Cold War era, the British government issued official information to protect its citizens against the nuclear threat from the Soviet Union. The most famous information campaign was called “Protect and Survive,” which was produced between 1974 and 1980. This series provided information about the dangers of radioactive fallout and guidance for survival after a nuclear attack.

Major underlines the importance of preparing civilians for external threats, especially in the gray zone. "We need to think about deterrence, defense and resilience. This means, in particular, greater readiness of society. If society is not ready to support a war like Ukrainian society is currently facing, we will not survive."