Trump's deal efforts with Putin endanger the security of Europe and Ukraine

Trump's deal efforts with Putin endanger the security of Europe and Ukraine

cnn-a dangerous crack line opens, while Donald Trump eilt To end Ukraine. The US President strives for his claim to the Nobel Peace Prize. But just peace could fail faster, since it raises existential questions for Ukraine and the security situation in Europe.

The tension has reinforced after the president has decided, civil servants from Kiev and European powers from the US-Russian conversations on Tuesday in Saudi-Arabia, to exclude. The fate of his endeavor to end the war will ultimately depend on whether its quick pace can take into account decisive details of peace that enable Ukraine to survive, to ensure the borders and security of Europe and at the same time not to reward Russia's illegal invasion.

Trump's fragile negotiation game

Trump has shown little obvious interest in these three goals, which explains why his strategy is a risk. All parties in this process have serious concerns and significant influence, which makes the end of the war far more difficult than its failed promises in the election campaign to create peace within 24 hours.

Trump is looking for a deal - maybe some deal. The war often seems to be a distraction from what Trump really wants: the opportunity to sit down at a table with putin, one of the global rulers. Nevertheless, there is the possibility that Trump's urgency and power and his access to the Russian president could change the dynamics of this world war-like war.

The reality of Ukraine

Trump only expresses a reality that many US and European civil servants have shared privately for months: Ukraine can no longer win the war and does not drive Russia away from the entire territory. His subordinates endlessly praise him as the largest deal maker in the world, but his previous efforts seem to be naive.

He granted some of the main goals of Russia, often empathized with the goals of the invasion and has opposed America's European friends who have borne the costs of supporting Ukrainian war efforts. These allies, which Defense Minister Pete Hegseth describes as those who have to monitor any peace alone, are concerned.

The complex relationship between Trump and Russia

In his most remarkable step, Trump tried to take half of the wealth of Ukraine on rare earths - a train that uses the desperate vulnerability of a attacked nation. President Wolodymyr Selenskyj rejected the "agreement". Trump apparently shows no understanding of the historical dangers in Ukraine or in the Middle East, considering that he is planning to move the Palestinians from Gaza to build beach resorts there.

Trump's perspective of every geopolitical stove as a real estate transaction that is only waiting to be completed, indicates that he could support an agreement that Putin leaves all the stolen country just to end killing. And there is a high risk of playing Putin, who loosened up the atmosphere before the conversations in Saudi Arabia due to the release of several US prisoners, including Kalob Byers, who was arrested last week for drug trafficking.

the risk of quick peace

Trump is convinced that Putin wants to end the war and says: "I think he wants to hire the fight. I see that. We have spoken long and intensely." From a strategic point of view, however, Putin could have reasons to continue fighting. Despite horrific losses, his armed forces are gradually making progress on a blood -soaked battlefield.

Federal President Putin has already achieved some of his goals before he meets Trump. The US President has undermined Putin's status as a pariad in the west by enthusiastic about the possibility of summit meetings in the United States and Russia. In addition, the Trump administration has given up important potential sources of pressure by excluding NATO membership for Ukraine and the use of American troops to maintain a possible peace.

Europe's reactions and challenges

Until a few weeks ago, some European diplomats believed that the alarm mood about Trump's re -election was exaggerated, and the unpredictability of the new president could be mastered. Hegseth's hostility and Vice President JD Vance in Europe was a wecker . Just like Trump's destruction of western unity via Ukraine by sent his team for discussion about peace with Putin's team before consulting Europe.

The outcome of the Ukraine War is almost as crucial for Europe as for Ukraine. A peace treaty that strengthens Russia would suspend the continent of a newly strengthened enemy, while the United States threatens to withdraw security guarantees for its allies for 80 years. Europe's strongly weakened armed forces After years of budget cuts, there are doubts as to whether they can maintain a significant peacekeeping team in Ukraine after peace.

The British Prime Minister Keir Strander warned after the talks in Paris that Europe is facing a "unique moment in a generation". In another sign that Europeans are trying to get their affairs under control, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, said on X that Ukraine deserves "peace through strength" - an echo from Trump's new catchphrase for his foreign policy "America First". Strander offered to send British troops to monitor a possible peace agreement in Ukraine, but under the important condition that there is US support; Because this is the only way to prevent Russia from being reunited to Ukraine.

His comment shows that the European leaders recognize that they could expose their troops to the risk without support and get involved in a war with Russia. Strander, who plans to meet Trump in Washington next week, is a bridge between the European powers and the US president, while trying to restore Britain's global influence that has taken off from the European Union since leaving.

The challenges are two: Trump does not seem to be interested in a relationship, and there are only a few signs that it is really important to him what Europeans think.