Trump and the Iran conflict: a challenge for diplomacy

Trump and the Iran conflict: a challenge for diplomacy

President Donald Trump tries to avoid a war with Iran. But can he really escape?

challenges for US foreign policy

When it comes to national security concerns and political considerations in Germany, it could make sense to not have direct offensive operations in the USA in Lange to start feared conflict , which Israel considers to be vital for its existence. Nevertheless, mighty forces could go deeper into the conflict when it is currently the case where the United States only protect Israel from the fatal rockets and drones.

Iran's military provocations

How cnn reported at the weekend. To kill khameni, two sources. But some decisions are outside of Trump's influence. Should the decide to be no longer afraid and Attaching Washington will be forced to react hard to keep the credibility and deterrent. Another scenario is that Tehran could put pressure on Trump to tame Israel by attacking international shipping routes in the Gulf or Red Sea and thus triggers a global energy crisis.

The pressure on Trump also grows from his own party to carry out military actions that the United States could only take over. Such a mission could be, Irans to destroy in Fordow The air striking options of Israel applies. The thought behind such a blow would be that Iran is now uniquely vulnerable and could offer the opportunity to switch off the potential for an Iranian atomic bomb.

The risks of a new conflict

CNNS Team in the White House reports that is strongly skeptic over an American intervention in the conflict. Such a decision would be associated with considerable dangers. It could lead to the conflict over the current political groups and culminate into a lengthy war without a clear plan.

The lessons of the early 21st century show that the war goals and analyzes of the Middle East, which were developed in Washington, are almost always catastrophic. The idea that Iran's brutal clerical regime could overthrow may seem seductive. But the Saddam Husseins and the civil war in Syria show that Middle East countries can simply decompose when power vacuums arise.

The attitude of the Republicans

Political pressure on Trump is already growing to leave the place on the sidelines, although the United States has clarified that the decision to start massive attacks against Iran is exclusively their matter and that the American armed forces are not offensive.

One of the complicated factors for Trump is that, although the attacks of Israel seemed to be successful in eliminating high -ranking military leaders and nuclear scientists, remains unclear whether Israel has the capacity to end Iran's nuclear program himself. Former Vice President Mike Pence said in "State of the Union" on Sunday that if Israel's attacks do not make Iran do important concessions in the diplomatic endeavor of Trump to end the nuclear program that the United States should be willing to become part of the conflict.

The domestic political consequences

These political considerations are already problematic enough. However, Trump also faces a complex domestic scenario that is the result of his own transformation of the GOP into an isolation policy party. This means that he is in a different political situation than George W. Bush when he intervened in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Some votes from the right, including Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk , Trump already warned of the possible consequences of a new war in the Middle East. The president is very careful when dealing with his complex electorate and hesitates to take steps to annoy his supporters. An example of this was his U -turn last week, when he stopped the deportations of land workers, some of the farmers and employers in rural areas who support him not to annoy him.

The state of US foreign policy

Trump's authority has already been undermined by three key leaders: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The “art of the deal” in foreign policy seems to fail. Putin ignores Trump's efforts to end the Ukraine conflict. XI has enforced twice that Trump gives up in her trade war. Netanyahu initiated the conflict with Iran to avoid the US President for a long time.

In domestic politics, president must build public trust in their decisions about the war. But Trump could have difficulty because he alienated millions of people with his confrontational politics. His attempt to end the Ukraine conflict was also in vain. The conflict expanded and Trump was increasingly frustrated by the Russian leader.

more difficult times and impending crises could lead to an uncontrolled state if there is a lack of constant and constant American leadership. The Iran problem could develop as the international stove that Trump wanted to avoid in his first term, but now it could shape its second term.