Russia's close relationships with Iran influence the Ukraine War

Russia's close relationships with Iran influence the Ukraine War

Just three days before the return of the future US President Donald Trump into the White House, Russia and Iran will finally sign a comprehensive partnership agreement, a deal that has been in the MACH for months. This development draws attention to a partnership that has shaped the theater of war in Ukraine and that continues to aim to challenge the order internationally-even if the new US administration prospects a closer cooperation with Russia.

complex relationships between Russia and Iran

Russia and Iran share a complicated story that is characterized by conflicts and are now also on a narrow line between cooperation and distrust. Nevertheless, the Ukraine War Moscow and Tehran brought closer together. "The idea of considering the United States not only as an opponent, but as a strategic goal of their entire foreign policy," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Putin's trip to Tehran

in July 2022, five months after his extensive attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir visited Putin Tehran - his first trip in war outside of the former Soviet area. However, his "special military operation" did not ran according to plan behind the photo opportunities and shaking hands. His armed forces had already lost many of the initial successes when they were pushed back from the Kyiv region, and should suffer even more area losses later by two other successful Ukrainian counter -offensive.

arms production in Russia

The collaboration with Tehran, however, brought advantages to Russia. Thanks to an agreement signed after Putin, Russia is now producing thousands of Iranically designed Shahed attack drones in a factory in Tatarstan. An investigation by CNN in December 2024 showed that the production rates in this facility have more than doubled.

The effects of the drones on the course of the war

These drones form the backbone of Moscow War of War, by attacking civil areas and the energy infrastructure in enthusiastic civil areas to break the resistance of the Ukrainian people and weaken the air defense of Ukraine. According to a CNN count, Russia used over 11,000 drones in Ukraine last year, while the estimates of CNN sources in the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for 2023 were only a little more than 2,500

ballistic rockets and military support

The United States also reported that Russia received Iranian ballistic rockets. Although there has been no evidence of their use so far, this message has already sent a strong signal to the allies of Ukraine that Putin is willing to advance the escalation. However, this was less gratifying for Moscow, however, one of the factors that intensified the discussion about the approval for Ukraine, western long -range missiles against military goals in Russia.

geopolitical changes and new dynamics

After Putin's visit to Tehran, the dynamics for both sides have shifted significantly. Russia now has the upper hand in Ukraine and gains terrain on the Eastern Front. With the help of North Korean soldiers, Ukraine slowly pushes back in the Russian region of Kursk. The upcoming Trump administration, which Moscow is hardly hidden, wants to begin talks and indicates that Russia allow control over the occupied areas and to delay the NATO membership of Ukraine.

Iran in an uncertain location

In the meantime, Iran feels increasingly uncertain. Nikita Smagin, an independent expert for Russia and Iran, notes that the government of Pezeshkian is hastily trying to sign this contract with Russia because there are multiple threats for their safety. "They fear the Trump administration, they fear Israel, the collapse of Assad and Hezbollah," he explains, adding that Iran is looking for a sign of support.

The exploitation of Iranian uncertainties

Moscow sees this as an opportunity to underline his own power. "The Russians have a good feeling for someone in difficulties," said Alterman, pointing out that they may intend to "help a little, but to get more out more than they want." What Russia wants to be in concrete terms remains unclear.

Slaufen in the course of the war

Despite the latest military successes, Russia has had major losses in their own ranks. While the problems with Manpower near Russia are not comparable to the extent of Ukraine, it could still use more infantry. However, experts doubt that Iran would be as accommodating in this regard as North Korea, according to reports around 11,000 soldiers in the Kursk region.

a complicated geopolitical structure

smagin points out: "Even if Iran wages his wars outside the country, you are not ready to sacrifice your soldiers." In addition, there is a significant suspicion of Iran in the relationship between Iran and Russia. Russia could also be careful about any defense pact, given the immediate threat that Israel represents for Iran.

conclusion: a geopolitical chess game

In this geopolitical chess game, the new agreement with Iran for Russia could also try to indicate a further escalation before a new US administration, which is perceived as less committed to Ukraine. "The Iranians certainly have worrying skills, and the Russians have shown their willingness to use worrying skills," said Alterman.