Putin faces a new challenge after 25 years: Trump S return

Putin faces a new challenge after 25 years: Trump S return

On December 31, 1999, the then Russian President Boris Jelzin gave a surprising announcement: he explained to the cameras that he would resign in favor of his Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin. "Why should you hold onto power for six months if the country has a strong leader who can be the president?" Asked Jelzin, pointing out the difficulties that many Russians had experienced from the collapse of the Soviet Union. "Why should I stand in his way?"

Putin's climb to power

The strong leader, of whom Yeltsin spoke, was the largely unknown Putin, a former KGB officer. On this New Year's Eve, Putin will look at the Russians and look back on a quarter of a century as a leader in Russia - both as a president and during a four -year interregnum as a powerful prime minister.

The current status quo in Russia

At the end of 2024, Putin's power seems stronger than ever. In the almost endless war in Ukraine, Russia has made progress in Donbass. At home, the political landscape of Russia has largely freed itself from any competition due to the death of the most influential opposition leader Alexej Nawalny.

A month after Nawalny's death in a remote prison north of the Arctic circle, the Kremlin guide sailed through the elections in which he was able to secure an overwhelming mandate, regardless of whether fair rules were disregarded.

The uncertainties of the future

Putin radiates self -confidence, but fresh uncertainties are imminent. The US President Elect Donald Trump promised during his election campaign to end Russia's war against Ukraine. Although his plan for a negotiating solution is still unclear, Trump has made one thing clear: he wants this to happen quickly.

"It is one of the things I want to do quickly - and President Putin said that he wanted to meet me as soon as possible," Trump explained at a recently taken place in Arizona. "So we have to wait. But we have to end this war."

Putin's challenge through US policy

It is not surprising that after Trump's re -election in Moscow, no champagne corks slam. Putin has relied on the war in Ukraine, including the changeover of the Russian economy to a war foot, the structure of closer alliances with North Korea and Iran to keep the war on the war, and last but not least his mention on the search list of the International Criminal Court.

Trump and Putin noticeably have some common interests that became clear at their summit in Helsinki 2018. Trump was ready to throw long-established standards in foreign policy overboard, as well as Putin, and yet the US public is ensuring that Putin's authoritarian leadership is concerned about possible authoritarian tendencies in their own country.

The way to negotiations

Trump’s designated special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, the retired army heginal Keith Kellogg, described the war as a "cage fight" between the two countries in which Trump could act as a referee.

"There are two fighters and both want to give up. You need a referee who separates them," he said at Fox Business. "I think President Donald J. Trump can ... I think he actually has both sides ready to come together - at some point - and to speak."

The role of diplomacy

How this analogy will work in practice remains to be seen. The Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj has changed his rhetoric in the past few weeks and admitted that Ukraine does not have the power to regain all lost areas. Putin also showed a willingness to negotiate in his end of the year and said: "Politics is the art of the compromise. We have always emphasized that we are ready for both negotiations and compromises."

economic challenges

Putin remains in the event of positive statements, although ordinary Russians suffer from high food prices and a falling ruble. A recently published analysis paper from the scientist Alexandra Prokopenko states that Russia's overstimulated war economy may be heading to the point of a crisis.

"Every month increases the pressure," she wrote. "The Kremlin approaches a turning point where the social contract between the state and the population is inevitably postponed. The Russians are increasingly asked to accept growing inequality and a decline in quality of life, while short-term stability and symbolic pride are offered to the idea of a 'fortress nation'. But even this compromise is becoming increasingly sustainable."

Putin came to power 25 years ago with the promise of strong rule after a decade of collective trauma during the Yeltsin era. Now he has to face Trump in a new time.