Marco Rubio and the risks for Cuba as Foreign Minister

Marco Rubio and the risks for Cuba as Foreign Minister

Havana, Cuba - Cuba has been suffering from the economic sanctions of the United States for over 60 years and the misconceptions of his own government. Life on the communist island could soon become even more difficult.

growing tensions under the US government

One of the strongest adversary in the Cuban government, Senator Marco Rubio, is about to become foreign minister under Donald Trump. This does not exactly indicate an improvement in the already stagnating Cuban economy. Rubio, son of Cuban exile, has long set itself the goal of tightening the US trade bargo compared to Cuba. If it is confirmed, Rubio could be able to further increase the pressure on Cuba, possibly to the edge of the collapse.

Rubios influence on US policy against Cuba

"He has reached the highest position in the US government that he has ever held, and he will try to prove his reputation as an extremely hard advocate against Cuba," said Peter Kornbluh, co-author of the book "Back Channel to Cuba: The hidden history of secret negotiations between Washington and Havana". Kornbluh notes: "It could really be the last nail in the coffin for Cuba."

would become Rubio Foreign Minister, but would be faced with more pressing questions such as the war in Ukraine, the conflicts in the Middle East and the fight against the growing Chinese influence, especially in Latin America. Nevertheless, Cuba remains a central topic for Rubio that accompanied him from his time as a city commissioner in West-Mami to the US senator. In the second line of Rubio's biography in the Senate it says that he went into politics "mainly because of his grandfather, who saw his home country destroyed by communism".

Cuba's special role in Rubios hometown

A joke that has been made in Rubios hometown Miami, a retreat for exilants from socialist regime in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, says that Miami is the only city in the USA with her own foreign policy. However, this remark no longer seems so mocking because the son of exile who left their home country is preparing to become America's top diplomat. As Foreign Minister, Rubio could be responsible for the development of additional economic sanctions against Cuba, the increase in funds for dissidents and the promotion of pro-democratic programs that Havana considered to be in a regime, and the further restrictions of trips to US citizens to Cuba.

US policy under the bid administration

The flights to goals were expanded under the bidet government on the entire island, and Online Cuban entrepreneurs opened as well as the restrictions for US citizens who want to travel to the island. However, Rubio vehemently kneaded against American tourist trips to Cuba and said in 2013: "Cuba is not a zoo where you buy an entry ticket and people live in cages to see how they suffer ... You have given thousands of dollars in the hands of a government that uses this money to control people to help you feel."

The future of relationships between Cuba and the USA

Some organizers of so-called "People-to-People" trips that organize trips to US citizens to Cuba declined to comment on CNN, which could mean Rubios role as foreign minister for their business due to the possible effects.

Analysts who have studied Rubios career claim that for him there is no topic more personal than the end of what he sees 90 miles in front of the US coast as a tyrannical dictatorship. "He is characterized by his childhood in Miami, surrounded by people who have incredibly strong feelings regarding Cuba, and he really defined himself as the son of Cuban immigrants," said Manuel Roig-Franzia, author of "The Rise of Marco Rubio". "It would be shocking for me if he didn't find a way to raise Cuba's profile in American foreign policy."

Rubios influence on the foreign policy of the USA

Rubio has already done that. During the first Trump administration, "Rubio was the one who set the direction at Cuba," said a US diplomat who wanted to remain anonymous. "We have been informed: 'Whatever he wants, he gets him. Keep him just happy.'" As Foreign Minister, Rubio would have the opportunity to have the pressure on the communist leadership of the island and its allies directly. It would be difficult for an economically closely related country as Mexico, which has exported hundreds of thousands of Barrels oil to Cuba in recent months, to ignore the demands of a US foreign minister to reduce support for Havana.

The challenge of a destabilized Cuban economy

While Trump maintains authoritarian heads of state like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, he shows no willingness to do this with socialist leaders in Cuba or Venezuela, which could affect its growing support in the Latino community in the USA. However, additional sanctions against the already troubled Cuban economy could prove to be counterproductive.

"There are no plans that I know how to handle a failed state 90 miles off the US coast," says Ricardo Herrero, Managing Director of Cuba Study Group, which promotes dialogue between the two governments. "What seems to be Cuba or at least is much closer to being a failed state than a Jeffersonian democracy."

The attitude of the Cuban leadership

Cuban officials, who, until recently, often mocked the Florida Senator as a "Narco" Rubio, in allusion to the drug trade conviction of his brother-in-law in the 1980s, have taken note of the threat of additional trump sanctions with serenity. However, they explained that they were open to direct negotiations with every US official, even Rubio.

Nevertheless, the Cuban leadership has made it clear that no measure of US pressure will force them to stop multi-party elections or to leave political prisoners released as US administrations have demanded back to Eisenhower. "The results of these elections are nothing new for us," said Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel in an interview with state-controlled media in November after Trump's election. "The country is ready. We will continue without fear, in the trust that we can be successful with our own efforts and with our own talent."

the economic reality in Cuba

But the deteriorating economic reality on the island is in a strong contrast to this self -confidence. On Wednesday, a month before Trump is supposed to take up the office, flickered all over Cuba from . The latest power failure caused by a failure in an outdated Soviet power plant was the third nationwide failure within three months.