Putin looks through Trump: No deal to Ukraine in sight

Putin looks through Trump: No deal to Ukraine in sight

a "no" is not a "yes" if it is "maybe", a "probably not" or a "only if". This is the painfully predictable lesson that the first real diplomatic initiative of the Trump administration taught with the Kremlin in the war. You have been hopelessly deceived.

The demand for an unconditional ceasefire

The United States called for a 30-day, front-wide ceasefire without conditions. On Tuesday, after a dramatic, one -week waiting period and the loss of further hundreds of life, they received a comparatively small prisoner exchange, ice hockey games, further conversations and, according to Kremlin, a one -month mutual break during attacks on the "energy infrastructure".

misunderstandings and technical pitfalls

This last wording is the beginning of a easy to avoid technical mining field. According to the explanation of US President Donald Trump and his press spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt referred to "energy and infrastructure". These two terms stand for completely different concepts.

Russia indicates that the power grids and gas deliveries of Ukraine do not attack, although it has mercilessly done this in recent years. Winter in Ukraine have always been a dangerous undertaking with icy temperatures and inadequate energy reserves. The White House confusingly extended this ceasefire to all parts of Ukraine - in a misunderstanding, typing error or translation nuance - that are considered infrastructure: bridges, important streets, ports or railways. This has created conditions that were almost impossible for Russia to be resumed for Russia's tireless air raids - which were resumed every evening on Tuesday.

Kiev position and the pressure on Moscow

With the approaching summer and the urgent need for heating energy for the Ukrainians, Moscow is less a concession to stop attacks on the energy infrastructure. For Kiev, on the other hand, the demand to stop attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure means a loss of one of the most effective attack options in Ukraine. For months they have used long -distance roar and rockets to hit Russia's oil fields and pipelines and to cause considerable damage to the main financing source of the Kremlin, the export of hydrogen, especially China and India. President Wolodymyr Selenskyj seemed open to a break on Tuesday, but emphasized that he still needed the "details".

The reality of diplomatic negotiations

It is important to emphasize that Trump's long -announced conversation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin has almost nothing, apart from the predictable knowledge that the Kremlin chief believes that he can easily outsmart his opponents. The exchange of 175 prisoners and the return of 23 seriously wounded Ukrainians are a minor agreement that sounds like a scheme that was already in the works, given the frequency of similar past and the fact that they should take place as quickly as possible.

Putin's strategy and further steps

Apart from this and the attacks on the attacks (which always agreed), Russia used this one -week delay and the telephone conversation to emphasize that it wants any foreign help and news exchange as part of a deal. "Working groups" on the topics of Ukraine and Russia-US relationships are also to be set up. "Working groups" is a diplomatic euphemism of Russia for a lively lack of interest.

Putin immediately tried to provide the deal with numerous conditions. Instead of discussing "nuances" - how whether the OSCE or the UN would monitor the front line - he offered as few concessions as possible without presenting Trump a clear rejection.

conclusion: a lengthy way to peace

A clear "no" is what Trump ultimately received. It is packed as a “part -scale ceasefire”, but is only the first phase of Russia's decades of misleading diplomacy. You have agreed to pause the attacks, which will subsequently damage Moscow's bank balance. The initial and amateur -like mess about what has been agreed has opened an abyss in all future peace treaties, through which Putin can drive a further comprehensive invasion.

The theater performance of the past few months should offer little consolation that the war suddenly heads for peace. Yes, the Trump administration spoke like no one in the course of this war. But they also quickly confirmed that Moscow is looking for weaknesses and tried mercilessly to take advantage of this lack of technical details.

Trump believed that he could either convince, persuade or outwit Putin. So far he has not done that. In his first direct diplomatic meeting, he lost noticeably. His next decision defines her life for millions of Ukrainians. Will he lose interest, exert pressure or make concessions again? It is a confusing view.

his opponent does not focus on better relationships with the decades of Russia, the United States, or with its current President Donald Trump, but rather on the victory in the most worrying conflict since the Nazis.

These perspectives on the deal are not comparable. The art of the one is used more than the other.