Israel is preparing for new war while the Gaza custody rest ends

Von WOM

A month ago, Israelis and Palestinians were fulfilled by a rare feeling: optimism. After months of stuck negotiations, there was finally a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Apparently there was a real way to end the war. But since then the situation has changed drastically.

ceasefire in danger

The 42-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expires this weekend unless an agreement is made to extend. The two sides should begin discussions about a permanent end of the war in early February; Three weeks later, these conversations have not yet started.

political pressure on Netanyahu

Since the signing of the agreement, the mood has changed in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is optimistic about the return of US President Donald Trump and is under pressure from extremely right members of his own cabinet to return to the war. The ceasefire in Gaza is increasingly looking like a fleeting break.

"We are ready to return to intensive fights at any time," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday. "The operational plans are ready." Netanyahu made it clear that he is skeptical about the ceasefire and is already taking steps to avoid negotiations.

negotiations in the standstill

The Israeli government has replaced the chief security chiefs who had previously headed the talks about the ceasefire-by a close political ally-the Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, who has close connections to Trump administration. Last week it became known that a "high -ranking civil servant" from Israel was the negotiation team, which was led by the security chiefs, criticized Hamas to have made too much concessions in previous conversations.

complexity of the end of the war

The first phase of the ceasefire was only intended for Netanyahu as a temporary solution from the start. It served to bring some hostages home without permanently ending the war or thinking about what Gaza could look like after the end of the conflict. Almost 17 months after October 7, Netanyahu has not yet presented his vision for the future of Gazas, apart from the fact that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian authority based in the West Bank should take control.

pressure from political rights

Netanyahu sees immense pressure exposed to the political right in Israel. His finance minister, Bezhalel Smotrich, has threatened to leave the government coalition if Israel does not resume war after this weekend. Itamar Ben Gvir resigned from his post as Minister of National Security due to the ceasefire.

American mediation

Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy for the Middle East, returns to the region this week to try to save the ceasefire. In a conversation with Jared Kushner at a Saudi investment conference, he expressed little optimism: "The second phase is more difficult." Nevertheless, he emphasized that there was a real chance of success through hard work.

The role of Hamas

It remains unclear whether Hamas, whose most valuable good are the hostages, is willing to continue to leave Israelis without Israel undertaking to end the war. Despite Trump's support for the ceasefire, his messages have not appeared a peace stature since taking office. He made suggestions to drive Palestinians from Gaza and gave space to the annexation plans for the West Bank.

future of the ceasefire

The future of the ceasefire now depends on a simple calculation. Will Hamas see enough value in a short -term peace to continue to release hostages without long -term commitments from Israel? And if not, will the American government of Israel put pressure on the necessary concessions for a second phase?

Two million Palestinians who fight for survival depend on the answer. The same applies to the 63 hostages that are still in Gaza - of which almost half are alive.

"Please, I just want to go home," said Evyatar David, who was kidnapped by the Nova Music Festival, in a Hamas propaganda video while seeing how hostages were handed over to the Red Cross. Although he probably spoke under pressure, his family approved the publication of the video. "Time has come to end it," he said. "You have started something, please end."

summarized the location, and the coming weeks will be crucial for peace in the Gaza Strip and the negotiations based on it.