Europe's ally sleeps with the worst enemy

Europe's ally sleeps with the worst enemy

shocking changes in US politics

"The way this was transmitted in such a short time-hit on a shock-was a real shock for the continent," said Armida van Rij, a high-ranking research employee and head of the European program at London Thinktank Chatham House. European politicians process their grief and tried to formulate new and aggressive ideas in a hectic summit in Paris to put the contours of an insecure new reality.

inconsistent goals of Europe

But important capitals seem disoriented in their goals. Suggestions for a peace force, an increase in defense spending and new military aid were presented, but not uniform. The scattered intentions of Europe reflected the surprising gap, while on the other hand, the United States and Russia suddenly appear friendly and throw Ukrainian demands and territories from the negotiating table. Some experts believe that the appearance of a leader could help - a figure that combines Europe behind a common intention and builds a bridge between Kiev and Washington.

The search for European leadership

The British leader Keir Strander and French President Emmanuel Macron are the most obvious candidates and will visit Washington next week. But Europe has not made a name for itself for its unity in defense issues, and every important leader has to struggle with electoral or economic problems at home. There is also a delicate topic when and how hard you should take against Trump; Governments know that a break of this relationship could strengthen Moscow's hands.

troops on site

Europe had expected that Trump would be less interested in the struggle of Ukraine for sovereignty than the previous bidue government, but was not prepared for such a sudden, clear and bitter fracture. The sight of an incumbent US president who attributes the invasion of an opponent to his besieged ally was shocking and received a uniform conviction of European leaders. Europe is shocked on an emotional and a practical level.

contradictory military calculations

UK Prime Minister Strauber took the first important step this week to sweat the European governments behind a common goal by announcing a significant change in course: Great Britain would be willing to send troops on site to maintain an agreed peace in Ukraine. However, Western officials stated that such a troop would probably include fewer than 30,000 soldiers and concentrate on “calming”, secure important Ukrainian infrastructures and strengthen trust in the state.

political challenges and military concerns

The officials reported that the use of Great Britain and France, whereby Paris was already proposing to send troops to the ground last year, but was rejected by Europe. However, Strander has made it clear that an American "backing" would be decisive, which would probably focus on air force and be controlled from a NATO country like Poland or Romania. Even if Strander and Macron advertise these plans in Washington, many questions remain unanswered. What happens, for example, when NATO soldiers are attacked by Russia on the territory of Ukraine, which is not a NATO member; What is the measure of reaction?

a painful break and the search for solutions

The concept of using troops abroad is not fully popular. It is important that Poland, which has the largest NATO army in Europe and is an important player in Ukraine, is hesitant because it fears that this could make your own limits more vulnerable. If an informal, smaller management group forms in Europe, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will probably insist on being involved. He brings unpleasant truths for larger countries such as Great Britain, France and Germany about their defense spending.

criticism of Germany's defense spending

Germany is particularly sharply criticized. An unhappily scheduled election on Sunday could have weeks of negotiations about the next government. The presumably coming Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, positioned himself at the Munich Security Conference last week as Hawkisch opposite Ukraine. But Germany's military spending is a lean 1.5%. Merz explains that this must be increased, but has not made any firm commitments. The war of Russia has already restricted Germany in Europe.

The way forward for Europe

Regardless of the situation, there is the obvious possibility that a peace treaty agreed by the United States and Russia is rejected by Selenskyj or that Putin does not agree to provide peace troops. In this case, the support of Europe would be crucial to help Ukraine continue a difficult war without a defined end date. That means more than just words; Europe also has to fill a gap in the field of military help. Western Officials said this week that Kiev probably received enough military supplies to get by until summer.

"Biden has provided many armor before the inauguration. Armor is still arriving," they said. However, the loss of American contributions would be a hard blow; The official representative said there was a "difference in quality" between American deliveries and those from Europe. The fragment of the fragments of a decades of security with America will require painful and complicated work. However, European leaders have recognized this week that this may be necessary. "The United States withdraws from 70 years of cooperation," said another British legislator recently. "NATO remains a central pillar, and I hope that this has proven itself over time; but the reality of its opponents and allies must remain aware."