Europe's ally is sleeping with its worst enemy

Europe's ally is sleeping with its worst enemy

Last week, European leaders and officials were surprised by a shocking decline in American support for Ukraine. Many cannot understand why US President Donald Trump is taking such violent action against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and repeating the vitriolic misinformation usually spread from the Kremlin. European leaders were not involved in the talks between Russia and the United States and do not know when the United States will make a planned peace proposal to Kiev or carry out its threat to withdraw from the conflict. Uncertainty about future developments hovers over the continent.

Shocking changes in US politics

“The way in which this was delivered in such a short space of time – in quick succession – was a real shock to the continent,” said Armida van Rij, a senior research fellow and head of the Europe program at the London think tank Chatham House. European politicians, processing their grief, sought to formulate new and aggressive ideas in a frantic summit in Paris to define the contours of an uncertain new reality.

Europe's inconsistent goals

But important capitals appear to be disoriented in their goals. Proposals for a peacekeeping force, increased defense spending and new military aid were presented, but not uniformly. Europe's scattered intentions reflected the surprising divide, while on the other side the US and Russia suddenly appear friendly and throw Ukrainian claims and territory off the negotiating table. Some experts believe the emergence of a leader could help - a figure who will unite Europe behind a common purpose and build a bridge between Kiev and Washington.

The search for European leadership

British leader Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are the most obvious candidates and will visit Washington next week. But Europe is not known for its defense unity, and every major leader faces electoral or economic problems at home. There's also the thorny issue of when and how hard to take action against Trump; Governments know that breaking this relationship could strengthen Moscow's hands.

Troops on site

Europe had expected Trump to be less interested in Ukraine's struggle for sovereignty than the previous Biden administration, but was unprepared for such a sudden, clear and bitter break. The sight of a sitting U.S. president blaming an enemy's invasion of his beleaguered ally was shocking and drew uniform condemnation from European leaders. On an emotional as well as a practical level, Europe is shocked.

Conflicting military calculations

UK Prime Minister Starmer this week took the first significant step in rallying European governments behind a common goal by announcing a significant change of course: Britain would be willing to send troops to the ground to maintain an agreed peace in Ukraine. However, Western officials said such a force would likely number fewer than 30,000 troops and would focus on “reassurance,” securing key Ukrainian infrastructure and boosting trust in the state.

Political challenges and military concerns

The officials reported that the operation is being led by Britain and France, with Paris already proposing to send troops on the ground last year but being flatly rejected by Europe. However, Starmer has made it clear that American "backing" would be crucial, likely focused on air power and controlled from a NATO country such as Poland or Romania. Even though Starmer and Macron are promoting these plans in Washington, many questions remain unanswered. For example, what happens if NATO soldiers are attacked by Russia on the territory of Ukraine, which is not a NATO member; what level of reaction would that entail?

A painful break and the search for solutions

The concept of deploying troops abroad is not entirely popular. Importantly, Poland, which has the largest NATO army in Europe and is a major player in Ukraine, is hesitant, fearing this could make its borders more vulnerable. Should an informal, smaller leadership group form in Europe, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is likely to insist on being involved. In doing so, he brings with him uncomfortable truths for larger countries such as Great Britain, France and Germany about their defense spending.

Criticism of Germany's defense spending

Germany is particularly harshly criticized. An ill-timed election on Sunday could lead to weeks of negotiations over the next government. The likely incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, positioned himself as hawkish towards Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference last week. But Germany's military spending is a meager 1.5%. Merz explains that this needs to be increased, but has made no firm commitments. Russia's war has already limited Germany's voice in Europe on defense issues.

The way forward for Europe

Whatever the situation, there is the obvious possibility that a peace deal agreed to by the US and Russia will be rejected by Zelensky or that Putin will not agree to provide peacekeepers. In this case, European support would be crucial to helping Ukraine continue a difficult war with no set end date. This means more than just words; Europe also has to fill a gap in the area of ​​military aid. Western officials said this week that Kiev is expected to have received enough military supplies to last until the summer.

"Biden provided a lot of armaments before the inauguration. Armaments are still arriving," they said. However, the loss of American contributions would be a severe blow; the official said there was a “difference in quality” between the American shipments and those from Europe. Picking up the pieces of a decades-long security relationship with America will require painful and complicated work. But European leaders acknowledged this week that this may be necessary. “The US is withdrawing from 70 years of cooperation,” another British lawmaker said recently. "It remains a central pillar of NATO and I hope it will stand the test of time; but it must remain cognizant of the realities of its adversaries and allies."