Ukrainian attacks against Russia: Pro-Kremlin experts threaten nuclear weapons

Ukrainian attacks against Russia: Pro-Kremlin experts threaten nuclear weapons

How is Moscow on the surprising Ukrainian drone attacks Aircraft fleet react? So far, the Kremlin has not figured it out and only announced that it was waiting for the results of a formal examination of the attacks, the military bases thousands of kilometers from the ukrainian border removed have.

anger in the Russian media

In the Russian media, however, open anger is expressed. Pro-Kremlin commentators and bloggers are calling for a noisy retaliation, right down to loud demands for nuclear response. "This is not just a pretext, but a reason to start nuclear attacks on Ukraine," said the prominent bloggers "Two Majors" on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. "According to the nuclear mushroom, you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on," they added, thus playing on the inevitable search of the Kremlin for scapegoats for the debacle.

critical voices and warnings

A prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, appealed for caution and warned in a social media post that the use of nuclear weapons would lead to "to real political isolation". The popular blogger Alexander Kot, on the other hand, demanded that Russia should "strike with all might, regardless of the consequences". Russian hardliners routinely demand the nuclear extinguishing of Ukraine and only listen vague but ultimately empty threats to western allies.

The legal aspects

Nevertheless, it would be wrong to lean back too carefree and dismiss all Russian threats as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the possibility of a devastating Russian reaction more seriously. Several Russian commentators have noted how the destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers by Ukraine could be interpreted as an exceedance of the nuclear threshold defined by Moscow. The recently updated nuclear doctrine of the Kremlin - which determines the conditions for an assignment - states that every attack on "critically important" military infrastructure, which "disturbs" the responsiveness of the nuclear arms, could trigger a nuclear retaliation.

The consequences of a possible attack

The Russian national remote monitor Vladimir Solovyov said: "The Ukrainian attack was a reason for a nuclear attack" and called for attacks on the Ukrainian Presidential Office in Kiev and beyond. Regardless of the legal assessment, the threshold for a Russian nuclear answer remains high and such a strike in Kremlin circles would likely be dismissed as impracticalables. On the one hand, this would poison relationships with important trading partners such as China and India and may provoke military actions against Russian armed forces. Inevitable mass victims would also cause universal contempt and continue to isolate Russia on the international stage.

The pressure on the Kremlin

But the problem is that the Kremlin could now be under great pressure to restore the deterrent. It is not only the youngest Ukrainian drone attacks that have caused humiliation deeply in Russia. Shortly afterwards, the Ukraine performed another Frechen attack The third attack on this important traffic route. The last year by the Ukrainian armed forces has been accessed to the Kursk region in the west of Russia, another difficult blow and desperately had the Kremlin fight for the reconquest of its own areas. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to ensure massive disorders, far from the front lines.

How will Moscow react?

At the same time, the allies of Ukraine have gradually lifted the restrictions on the use of western weapons against Russia, which further challenges the environment that was once considered as Moscow. There is hardly any doubt that the Kremlin burns to react decisively, but how? A former Russian minister said CNN that the most likely answer of Moscow would be more "barbaric" conventional rocket and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities- attacks from which the Ukrainian population has been suffering for years. "There is no other way, because Russia does not have the capacity to start a massive military offensive. They simply lack people for it," said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy minister of energy who now lives abroad. "People talk about the possible use of nuclear weapons, etc. I don't think that is on the table. But Putin has repeatedly shown that he uses barbarism and revenge."

a dangerous Situation

In other words, while a nuclear option is extremely unlikely, it cannot be completely excluded. This conflict in Ukraine has already taken several unexpected turns, not least the complete Russian invasion in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters are happy about the impressive success of the latest military operations, the attack of a humiliated and wounded Russian bear could have dangerous and terrifying consequences.