Trump's peace vision for Ukraine meets Russian reality
Trump's peace vision for Ukraine meets Russian reality
cnn - the arguments are well practiced and must now withstand reality. A 30-day Waffellelland is first of all a message. But a ceasefire is the most complex and fragile concept of this years of conflict. As it develops, the support, sovereignty and survival ukrainens shape.
The impression on Moscow
After probably hundreds of thousands of dead on both sides, it will be difficult that one of the parties rejects the concept of an armistice. Moscow is under pressure to show that it is not the obstacle for US President Donald Trump on the way to peace at any price.
The illusion of peace
This scenario has been for the Kremlin Surreal after three years of brutal aggression has passed and there is little public desire to end the war apart from diplomacy between the USA and Russia in the past two months. In order to maintain the illusion, he is Trump's partner, Russia's President Vladimir Putin will probably accept some form of peace. Although there could be no immediate ceasefire, and, as Russia has previously done, it will be postponed to pursue the peace to pursue military goals - especially in the Kursk region, where Ukraine is about to be expelled from an area of Russia since August.
The reality of diplomacy
But finally reality will challenge the theory of telephone diplomacy. The first argument that needs to be tested is that the Kremlin cannot be considered trustworthy in order to participate in sensible diplomacy - as its history shows, he rarely does so. The second argument is that Kiev has maximum ambitions to regain its territory and reject the freezing of the front lines, since this would probably mean the permanent loss of a fifth of his country. In addition, Ukraine will probably not equip it with the same intensity as Moscow and could be disadvantage in a new Russian attack. These ideas are also questioned.
challenges of the counter -offensive
However, it is clear that most Ukrainians find a counter-offensive to recapture territories unrealistic, while the basic task of warding off Russian attacks is threatened by lack of ammunition and personnel.The inconsistency of a ceasefire
The cruel reality and the chaos of this war will certainly leave no room for a stable ceasefire. Instead, every ceasefire will probably result in a violent dispute over the fault for his collapse.
The primary goals of the Kremlin
The main goal of the Kremlin chief is currently confirming Trump's suspicion that Selensky is the hindering for peace. Putin cannot reject a ceasefire without losing the fictional moral advantage. But what comes afterwards - or during a break in the hostility - will shape the outcome of the war.
The tedious compliance with a comprehensive ceasefire
Firstly, a complete ceasefire across all front lines is an enormous challenge for a whole month. Over hundreds of miles, both sides have used tanks for years, then artillery and finally drones to brutally pursue each other in the middle of what is now called "beet"-the gruesome mixture from body parts that is rejected in combat-on the zero line. The expectation is that everything will suddenly come to a standstill for a month. That there will be no mistakes. That nobody out of panic or to pay old bills. That a cooking gas bottle does not accidentally explode and triggers a change of shooting that permanently breaks the peace.a partial armistice as a temporary solution?
For this reason, some European civil servants and Ukraine initially proposed a partial armistice that affects air, sea and attacks on energy infrastructure. Their argument was that easier monitoring was possible - that violations could be easily assigned to one of the pages. Nevertheless, this argument was rejected in Jeddah in favor of a much more comprehensive solution. If Moscow agrees, everything has to come to a standstill for a month.The probability of violations during the ceasefire
It is almost impossible that there are no mistakes or collisions during this month. In the past, Russia has specialized in misinformation and Maskirovka - deception as a tactic on the battlefield - as well as on operations under false flag when incidents are staged to create the basis for a retaliation. Every month of the break there will be moments when smaller shootings or drone attacks can impossible to be assigned to one of the pages, since AI manipulation, fake accounts or completely fictional incidents fill the information rooms.
The probability of misinformation
algorithms will aim to reinforce untruths. The heads of state will have difficulty understanding the smallest details about who shot whom on the front. Areas in which earthquake -like events have taken place will be unreachable for investigators due to the breaching violence.
The danger from Moscow deception
The evidence of the past ten years should lead to pessimism, and the deception worked almost exclusively. Russia occupied the Crimea in 2014, but pretended that it hadn't done it. Russia approved a ceasefire in 2015 and conquered the Ukrainian city of Debalzewe in the first few days. Russia initially explained not to start a large -scale attack on Ukraine in 2022. Initially, Russia claimed not to use prisoners on the front, but many of his prisons are now almost empty.
the need for a realistic peace evaluation
Moscow's previous balance sheet should underpin any assessment of how long a possible peace could last. To speak with a quote from the poem, the Trump to defend his enemy attitude towards migrants: "You knew damn good that I was a snake before you took up me." We should be aware of the goals of the Kremlin with clear eyes. These will not be achieved by freezing the front line. Putin needs a more comprehensive victory to justify the previous losses and to support his exaggerated idea of the threat from the West.
The risks of a failed ceasefire
The risk is clear: a ceasefire could collapse, probably due to Russian acts. Trump could wrongly believe that Ukraine is responsible for the disturbance of his peace, and the support for Ukraine could be frozen again - this time with a retrieving undertone, since it is considered an aggressor. Moscow claims to be the victim again and starts another intensive attack on Ukraine, where a short -term calm has led to a delay in western help and military readiness.
a final word about the diplomatic challenge
like Marco Rubio, US foreign minister, about Moscow said: "The ball is now in her field." Although this is an admired result, it also shows that Russia is talented in snapping the ball, inserting it and debating the rules of the game and past points before saying that the ball has actually been stolen from the other side.
The White House will soon experience a master class in the real diplomacy of the Kremlin. Trump's disruptive and sometimes direct methods brought us here. If you are applied directly and disruptively on Moscow, you could reduce the largest security threat in Europe since the Nazis. But they could also appear as too fleeting in the application and too simply to be able to deal with the cool deception and the glacier patience of Moscow.
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