Birth rate in Bavaria: negative record shocks families and politicians!

Birth rate in Bavaria: negative record shocks families and politicians!

The birth rate in Germany has reached a new low, falling from 1.57 children per woman in 2021 to around 1.36 children in 2023. This value corresponds to the level of the early 2000s. Only 116,500 live births were registered in Bavaria in the same year, which represents a negative record for the state in the last ten years. The decline in births in Bavaria is 7 percent compared to the previous year, without any increase in births in the seven administrative districts. The smallest decline was recorded in Swabia at -4.6 percent, while Lower Bavaria has the largest decline of -8.2 percent.

However, individual districts and independent cities were able to record increases, including Kaufbeuren with 3.3 percent and the Garmisch-Partenkirchen district with 3 percent. AfD member of the state parliament Stefan Löw asked questions about the causes of the decline, while the Ministry of Health referred to the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), which has identified four central causes: the war in Ukraine, inflation, climate change and the pandemic. Martin Bujard from BiB emphasizes that the desire to have children is often not implemented in times of crisis. It was also noted that at the beginning of the vaccination campaign against Covid-19, the vaccines were not approved for pregnant women.

Causes and political reactions

So far there has been no catch-up effect in births. In order to increase the birth rate and prevent Germany from shrinking, a woman would have to have an average of 2.1 children, as the 1970 level shows. Given the current situation, a proposal to adjust parental allowance to inflation is being discussed, as the maximum amount of 1,800 euros has not been increased since 2007, which corresponds to a loss in value of 38 percent. The Ministry of Social Affairs is trying to support families through various family policy measures, which include the child start-up allowance, which has been halved to 3,000 euros since 2023.

An analysis of demographic developments suggests that the birth rate in Germany is below the conservation level. There are numerous factors that influence fertility behavior, including financial aspects, women's employment, gender equality, family policies and attitudes towards contraceptives. Studies show that the desire to have children is often postponed until later in life, which is coupled with an increasing age at first birth. The age at first birth in Germany has increased from 24 years in 1970 to 30.2 years in 2020. In addition, birth behavior varies greatly between migrants, which also influences the birth rate.

Family policy measures such as parental allowance and the expansion of child care are seen as important instruments for increasing the birth rate. However, long-term effects of these measures can be seen - and with a time delay. The challenges arising from the current birth rate development are perceived as significant not only by politicians, but also by society, as reported by Bavarian state newspaper and the analyses Federal Agency for Civic Education prove.

– Submitted by West-East media