Ukraine increases attacks on Russia's energy - success visible

Ukraine increases attacks on Russia's energy - success visible

A dramatic increase in Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries has pushed gasoline prices in Russia to record highs, even as the government has banned gasoline exports to deal with the precarious situation.

Ukrainian drone attacks and their effects

Ukraine focuses its drone attacks on refineries, pumping stations and fuel trains in order to weaken the Russian war machine, but also to disrupt everyday life in Russia. In summer, demand for gasoline increases, especially among drivers and farmers in Russia.

According to CNN's count, at least 10 key Russian energy facilities have been attacked this month alone. These refineries are responsible for over 44 million tons of products annually - more than 10% of Russia's capacity.

Target facilities of the attacks

The targets include the gigantic Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia. CNN could Clouds of smoke Locate over the facility that was attacked in the early hours of August 14th. The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged damage to the facility, which was attacked again on August 19.

A large refinery in Saratov was also attacked earlier this month. In addition the fires burn at another refinery in the Rostov region, more than two days after the attack, according to Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's unmanned systems.

Gasoline shortages in Russia

Gasoline shortages are reported in several Russian regions and in annexed Crimea. The Russian-appointed governor, Sergey Aksyonov, attributed the shortages to “logistics problems” and said the government was “taking all necessary measures to purchase the required quantities of fuel and stabilize prices.”

An activist from a pro-Ukrainian group in Crimea,Yellow Ribbon, reported on Telegram, that the most popular type of gasoline has disappeared, and that “the understanding that this is the result of the good work of drones on the Russian economy does not make me sad.”

Price increases and forecasts

Despite government subsidies, Russian consumers are having to pay increasingly higher prices at gas stations. The wholesale prices for gasoline at the Stock exchange in St. Petersburg are up nearly 10% this month alone and are up about 50% year-to-date.

Much of this increase will be passed on to consumers, with the Russian Far East particularly affected. Analysts do not expect any relief in the foreseeable future, although the Russian government imposed a ban on gasoline exports in late July, which in turn led to a surge in crude oil exports.

Strategic military developments

The Ukrainian armed forces and intelligence services have developed a new strategy in long-range warfare that includes the use of drones and missiles as well sabotage while a completely different conflict unfolds on the ground. This month they claimed that long-range attacks this year have caused $74 billion in damage, with nearly 40% of attacks occurring at a distance of at least 500 kilometers within Russia.

Crude oil imports from Belarus

A report from Ukraine's foreign intelligence service recently mentioned that Russian companies are urgently purchasing petroleum from Belarus to address domestic shortages. The state refinery operator in Belarus, Belneftekhim, reported that “interest in Belarusian oil products on the Russian market has skyrocketed in the last week.”

Political reactions and counterattacks

Ukraine is also trying to hinder Russian oil exports. Last week, its drones attacked the Druzhba pipeline, which delivers Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia - two EU countries whose governments continue to maintain good relations with Moscow. Both states complained to the EU and declared that “with these attacks, Ukraine is not primarily damaging Russia, but rather Hungary and Slovakia.”

US President Donald Trump also intervened and said in a statement handwritten note to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that he was “very upset” about the disruptions.

Future outlook

For Ukraine, attacks on Russia's vital energy industries are a way to refute Moscow's narrative that its victory is ultimately inevitable. Ukraine is seeking to expand its arsenal of long-range weapons and last week unveiled a domestically produced cruise missile called Flamingo. The manufacturer's goal is to produce 200 pieces per month.

Missile specialist Fabian Hoffman emphasizes that the Flamingo missile could have a lethal radius of up to 38 meters on soft targets, such as the distillation columns of Russian refineries, which would cause significant damage.

“Any missile that successfully hits its target will cause much more damage with its 1,150-kilogram warhead than existing Ukrainian weapons,” said Mick Ryan, author of the Futura Doctrina blog.

Although analysts do not expect thousands of Russian gas stations to run empty, they believe the disruptions will exacerbate already high inflation and likely lead to an extension of the gasoline export ban into the fall as the Kremlin tries to drive down prices and secure supplies.

This article was supported in part by CNN's Annoa Abekah-Mensah.